I very much agree with pretty much everything you said in your last post. I believe that you have taken note of my comments regarding carrots and sticks and so on, whereas I can see where your arguments are coming from regarding Mladic and Kosovo.

If you do have the time I would certainly like to hear what you think about the Kosovo voting rights issue because I do think that it is an important issue that may have a role to play in the Serbian elections for the years to come.

Kind regards,

Fidel

I’m not certain that it has been such a requirement for some former Yugoslav countries. As far as Montenegro was concerned, there is evidence to show that Karadzic and a couple of other suspected war criminals spent time there (or indeed Djordjevic who was arrested there) but there was never any pressure applied to the Montenegrin government on the Hague issue. Of course Montenegro and Serbia ’suffered’ together when the state union existed. But perhaps I’m wrong and there was pressure behind the scenes, or even Montenegrin co-operation in ensuring no idictees upon its territory.

I sympathise to a degree with what you say about Albania and Macedonia but here is a slightly crass analogy. A wild teenager who had the power to disrupt much class proceedings may well be given the attention he deserves to reign in his unruly behaviour. Unfortunately a better behaved teenager (who is perhaps more of a loner or less able to influence fellow class members) who also has problems will be ignored. If the latter teenager explodes, goes on a crime wave, then he may receive more attention but key is his ability to impact on other people and disrupt the class.

To be more serious I’m sure you are aware that although Kosovo and Mladic are not related, like it or not, one does have impact upon the other. If Mladic is handed over then Serbia will look for that carrot, they will try to use this for a better ‘deal’ on Kosovo. In some ways, were I an Albanian, I might not be so keen for Mladic to be handed over, just in case a piece of my hard won pie is handed over at the last minute. There will also be some western diplomats that will buy into the Serbian argument as I’m sure you are aware, rightly or wrongly and this would strengthen the hand of democratic forces in Serbia. But yet again, its sad that in some way democratic Serbs and Albanians that should ostensibly be on the same side, might find themselves at loggerheads.

I don’t have time to answer the voting rights question but will try when I do.

Thanks for getting back to me. I believe that you and me have a lot in common and I agree in principle with most of what you say, however there are a few small details that we disagree upon, and as the saying goes “the devil is in the detail.”

1.
You can’t seriously state that “no further EU integration until the arrest of Mladic” is an EU stick. Come on! This a basic requirement that every country that has come out of the former Yugoslavia must fulfill in order to be considered for EU integration and before signing the SAA agreements.

This proves my point that EU has led such a “candy, candy, candy” policy with Serbia that the Serbian people (not you personally) start thinking that basic requirements are sticks whereas carrots are a must to complement these sticks.

There are voices within EU nowadays that Serbia should be given the candidate status by the end of the year to ensure its “European future” but why haven’t, say, Macedonia or Albania, who have worked much harder than Serbia on EU integration, been given such a treatment. Why are there no “carrots and sticks” for Macedonia and Albania; and how does this fit with the view within Serbia double standards and that EU and the West are anti-Serbian?

2.
I very much hope that Tadic will not use any excuses with regards to Mladic, but I am skeptical about his arrest. Again, this is not an EU stick: Croats had to fulfill this requirement with Ante Gotovina, Kosovars with Ramush Haradinaj, Macedonians with Ljube Boskoski.

3.
Although DS did brilliantly well on Sunday, the winners of these elections will be those who form the next government. I hope that Tadic will manage to form the next government, but having to do a deal with SPS is really not an ideal situation. Do you know how many seats does United Serbia control?

4.
Regarding Kosovo, I think I raised a very important question. The fact of the matter is that the new Kosovo constitution guarantees all Kosovar Serbs the right to dual citizenship, ie all Kosovar Serbs can also have Serbian citizenship, which entails the right to vote in Serbian elections. This doesn’t really effect the Kosovar independence either way.

So, I am not saying “don’t give the Kosovar Serbs the right to vote” — however, by giving false hopes that one day the Serbian police and army might return to Kosovo and by organizing elections in Kosovo the democratic forces in Serbia are weakening their position to the point that they can loose the government to the Radicals et al.

If the elections for the Kosovar Serbs were organized like the rest of the out-of-Serbia voting then the number of voters might be different and the parties for which they vote might be different. There is a lot of Serb-on-Serb pressure within Kosovo and the Kosovar Serbs who support democratic forces in Serbia are in the receiving end of this pressure and the out-of-Serbia voting might change that.

The question I am trying to raise is this: the democratic forces in Serbia need to address the issue of the voting of Kosovar Serbs because it is damaging them enough to loose control over the government. The interest of the Kosovar Serbs do not necessarily match those of Serbian citizens, ie putting Kosovo over other Serbian interests. So, the issue is should Serbian authorities make it so easy for Kosovar Serbs to vote by taking ballot boxed to people’s homes just so that they vote.

The consequences of this might become more clearer in the coming days and weeks when the next government will be formed.

By the way as you know your point on Kosovo Serbs is a little sneaky really because of the Albanian interest in depriving Kosovo Serbs of their voting rights in Kosovo. My reply would be that it might solve your problem but it would solve nothing in Serbia as these people would have automatic rights to vote in Serbia as they do today. Nothing would change apart from another step towards independence for Kosovo. I’m for compromise on the issue but that isn’t something I can support.
Yes they voted Radical and SPS but what to do about that speaking as somebody who leans towards the democrats? This should be offset by a huge drive to engage members of the Serbian diaspora to vote. The Serbian diaspora votes for democratic parties, even in Moscow, but the problem is not enough vote to have enough impact.

I looks like a silent section of the Serbian society finally woke up and went to vote knowing that if the Radicals et al won then Serbia had the potential of turning into a mini Belarus. I never doubted that the Radical electorate would be out in force as they are mainly farmers and the like, who view their chance to vote as their event of the year — having a say on something.

Now, three observations:

1.
I really doubt that the “EU signals” performed the magic. Instead, I believe that the “Radical signals” — the real possibility that Radicals could win the elections and form the next government — got people out to vote for Tadic. I just don’t believe that any signals from Brussels or Washington or Moscow for that matter can have a significant impact on the elections — I just don’t buy it.

2.
Again regarding EU. bganon, I know what the EU carrot(s) were, but I failed to see any EU sticks. I just don’t buy the argument that carrots and sticks work with voters — such policies really only work when dealing directly with a government, not voters. If you think that getting closer to Russia/China/Arabs were the sticks then they were not EU tools.

Honestly, could you please tell me what were the EU sticks?

This is a really important issue because it signals something very negative in my opinion. The point being that if you can convince major EU leaders that a “radical” group can come to power in your country and move away from the EU path then you can skip some requirements on the EU track that other countries have to meet. I would absolutely love to believe that Mladic and Karadjic cases will be solved in the near future, but I very much doubt it. Tadic and his people will now say to EU: oh no, if we were to arrest them now the Radicals will definitely come to power and none of us wants that, do we?

3.
The only result that did not surprise in these elections is the percentage of votes the Radicals et al received from the Kosovar Serbs. Politically, Tadic and other pro-EU forces would have been much stronger if Kosovar Serbs did not participate in the general elections of Serbia. In other words, Tadic would be much better off if Kosovo was not part of the Serbian electoral map and as long as Tadic supports this inclusion of Kosovo in the Serbian election he will be handing that crucial number of seats to the Radicals et al.

OK, OK, I can see you people saying that Kosovo is more important than a few seats in the Serbian parliament, but at a time like this when the next government is decided by a majority of one or two seats in parliament and with, supposedly, the future direction of Serbia in question then one is entitled to raise the question: should the Serbian citizens (Serb or otherwise) have their fate tied to the interests of the Kosovar Serbs? This is a profound question.

Finally, I hope Tadic’s allies will form the next government, however I am not entirely certain it will happen. The other bloc (Radicals, Kostunica and Socialists) might manage to form a majority of 1 or 2 in the Serbian parliament. And without of a shadow of a doubt that is down to the votes of the Kosovar Serbs.

The new government will have a mandate to continue EU integration and to resolve the Mladic question for once and for all. Its time to sweep away the cobwebs and move full steam ahead.