Comments on: Serbia: Elections at last

By: bganon

bganon — Wed, 29 Nov 2006 00:47:12 +0000

mijawara I havent seen ONE estimate of support for Cedomir Jovanovic being 15 percent.

Do you have a link for that figure?

By: George W Bush

George W Bush — Tue, 28 Nov 2006 16:34:18 +0000

Turn Mladic over. I seen the old men, women and children fleeing through the snow over frozen mountains to escape your “Brave” Serb fighters.

By: mijawara

mijawara — Wed, 22 Nov 2006 23:21:43 +0000

Doug: “. . . the largest party in the coalition — Kostunica’s Democratic Party of Serbia — is likely to lose ground, while Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party has a decent chance of gaining some.”

Think this is a bit of a misreading of the situation. On the important issues, DSS isn’t much of a different creature than SRS: Kostunica is rehabilitating the Milosevic legacy and leading Serbia toward a sort of soft authoritarianism. DS and G17 have seen their support erode because they both cravenly backed the referendum.

Čedomir Jovanović’s LDP was up to 5% in the summer and, by most estimates, has trebled that level of support. Expect to see LDP make big gains at the expense of DS, and some kind of entente between Kostunica and DSS.

By: Oliver

Oliver — Sun, 19 Nov 2006 17:32:09 +0000

Yes, DC was a shining beacon of ethics and had no ties whatsoever to any shady organisation.
Any party with no opposition to fear will be spoiled.

By: Charly

Charly — Sun, 19 Nov 2006 05:32:44 +0000

Like Italy and the communist party (or not)

By: Oliver

Oliver — Sun, 19 Nov 2006 01:42:09 +0000

I don’t think it applies strongly to Serbia (yet)

As of now, probably not. But they are going down that road.

most patronage power rests with the executive

That is exactly my point. Given a parliamentary system of government and one strong fundamental opposition, the centrist parties will always be in power. They will find a way to protect their interests.

The status quo is unstable. If they keep this up, eventually a radical majority is inevitable.

By: Doug M.

Doug M. — Sat, 18 Nov 2006 11:26:56 +0000

Oliver, he said “various Serb republics”. One and a half is not “various”.

Your point on patronage is well taken, but I don’t think it applies strongly to Serbia (yet). Parliament is relatively weak; most patronage power rests with the executive. In rough order, the PM, the ministers, and the president.

This is why the apportionment of ministries is going to be interesting.

Doug M.

By: Oliver

Oliver — Fri, 17 Nov 2006 16:20:00 +0000

The presence of a party which will be a part of any administration gives this party enormous opportunities in the field of patronage. IMHO this is exactly what got Berlusconi into government.

“the wish of the Serb republics” to unite

Would you make that judgement for the Bosnian Serbs, too?

By: John Montague

John Montague — Wed, 15 Nov 2006 22:43:41 +0000

And Brussels can hardly be said to have sought the outcome of the Montenegro vote, given the conditions it imposed.

By: Doug M.

Doug M. — Wed, 15 Nov 2006 20:07:51 +0000

Oliver, I’m not sure what you’re going on about. Sure, there’s corruption in Serbia. How does this connect to coalition politics?

Stevan: it’s “the wish of the Serb republics” to unite? That’s strange… I could have sworn the Montenegrins had a vote on that just a few months ago.

Hey, who was that I saw in Podgorica last week? Why, the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Agim Ceku, visiting his Montenegrin friends.

So, no, not really.

Doug M.