Well we’re having a fairly lively discussion on the original post about the future of Italian democracy, so I thought it might be useful, as a sort of side plate, to link to this analysis from Morgan Stanley’s Vincenzo Guzzo. He highlights the recent changes in Italian election law, and the impact they may have on the final outcome of this year’s poll. In particular he suggests that:
“these new rules have encouraged the main parties on both fronts to seek alliances with a large number of miniscule formations, thus exacerbating the risk of political fragmentation within each of the two coalitions and possibly diluting the content of the two platforms“.
Well rather than diluting, the word hijacking comes more to mind, expecially if I think about the influence Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya has been able to have on the implementation of the Zapatero programme here in Spain. I don’t know if anyone indside Italy has any views on how the new balance could affect political agendas?
Update: Hans Suter has just mailed me making this point (which is also partly touched on by Guzzo):
It’s usually forgotten that there aren’t only political elections, a month later there will be administrative elections (mayors etc). There will at the same moment the election for a new head of state, and shortly after there will be a referendum about the changes the center right government has made to the constitution. For rest:the coffers are empty and the mess immense. Wish us good luck.
Feed: A Fistful of Euros
March 16th, 2006 at 5:01 pm
I believe that “miniscule formations” are a mopping up phenomena. Won’t influence a beautiful nothing. The center-right will loose, that’s why we see actually strong competition within CdL. The Lega has already stated that feel free of obligations. Not so on the Left. I believe what will determine the character of the center-left government is the result of the newly formed Rosa nel Pugno (socialist, liberal (european style), radical, “laico”) that seems to get traction with young voters.
The Senate majority might be thin because of the different demographic structure of voters ( a unique reverse age discrimination: you need 25 yrs to vote, 40 to be voted and 50 to be head of state.)
And the whole democracy, emigration, hate stuff is entertainment.
March 17th, 2006 at 5:16 am
Wish us good luck
Looks like they will need it
March 17th, 2006 at 6:02 pm
A couple of updates to answer some questions we should consider in the current debate ahead of the April 9-10 vote in Italy.
1) What prevented Silvio Berlusconi from putting on a career-best performance as a small-screen communicator in the head to head with Romano Prodi?
2) What is going wrong with Berlusconi’s campaign, and why?
3) What is the biggest challenge Prodi is going to face in the next face off with “the Cavaliere?”
The answers to the first two questions could be found in an excellent editorial by Pierluigi Battista in yesterday’s Corriere della Sera (in English).
The best answer to the third, in turn, might be hidden somewhere in this New York Times (and IHT) report by Ian Fisher.
Have a nice weekend everybody.
Roberto
March 17th, 2006 at 8:39 pm
1 stressed out, almost brain dead
2 campaign is going fine, economy much less so
3 not to be perceived as patronizing
April 9th, 2006 at 11:19 am
While waiting for Monday afternoon, when the election results will be clear, I have been looking around to see how other countries see the Italian situation. Being English of Origin but having lived for 35 years in the South of Italy, I am only now getting to understand the Italians. Very complicated population and due to it’s young life (italy exist from 1860) and the presence of the Church in Rome, it has not had the opportunities other European countries have had to progress and indipendence. Even today the church( it’s influence is less than 30 years ago) has a huge weight and the actual goverment has done all it could to please it with special laws and treats.
As I would have never voted for Murdoch as prime minister in England, I would not have voted for Mr. B, but the Italians, as I was saying, do not have the same approach to politics and freedom as other European countries have.
The Italians are very individualist and put their personal interest in front of the general one (me, my family and I. Italy comes out during football matches); you only have to visit towns in the South of Italy to have a clear view. Houses which on the outside are unfinished are perfect and functional on the inside. In many cases this is also an approach to life which make the difference. I hope Mr. B goes home and Italy works to become a normal country. The Italians have an enormous capacity to adapt to all conditions and find solutions which makes them very special.
I only wanted to point out that it is difficult to judge the Italians approach to the events of life. If you live with them you hate and love them, but, at least in my case, you can never become one of them due to your imprinting.