Normally Oliver I would absolutely agree with you, indeed my “In the morning, in the evening and at night” post was hardly at attempt to excuse Gyurcsany in any way, and Solyom is probably right (but I am trying to avoid getting drawn in to the details of Hungarian politics).

The problem is really “will Hungary have a long run”?

This question is not so ridiculous as it sounds. Obviously Hungary as a nation state will continue to exist, this is not my point. The issue which is posed is whether Hungary will have a social and economic future which will inspire any sort of confidence.

We are only 5 to 10 years away from the time when the demographic issues will hit Hungary very hard indeed. If Hungary descends into internicine political warfare now, then the economy may well crash in 2007. Simply foreign investment may well come straight out, and as the forint sinks the mortagages will become unbearable. If they let themselves inflict this kind of damage then the time they have left will be largely lost. This is the issue.

Oh, and there is that other little issue of contagion. If Hungary seriously crashes then the rest of Eastern Europe will be affected. These are not insignificant matters, and for that reason I think an end to the fueding and a consensual government built about an agreed belt tightening programme is now an urgent necessity.

Does this mean that Gyurcsany should go, probably, but he should be replaced by someone who can command cross party support, otherwise it will all end in tears, and that won’t take too long to happen. That is all.

That is debateable. On the long run it may be very important to see a government punished for fudging economic data.

As we can see from the tone adopted by one of the contributors above the situation in Hungary is hardly conducive to dialogue at the moment. At the end of the day it is a lot less important to decide who is responsible for the mess than it is to get the necessary unity to do something about it.

With the outcome of Friday’s vote seeming to lean in Gyurcsany’s favour the opposition Fidesz party are getting frustrated and restless. Opposition leader Viktor Orban is already crying ’foul’.

Are you smoking dope? Viki is not crying foul but pointing out the obvious foregone conclusion of the confidence vote. Especially considering MDF’s involvement.

Deficit figures for 1997-99? A URL would also be nice.

Doug M.