Coming back to Douglas’ article, I would react that there is not much hope for transition in Belarus, although freeing some opposition leaders made Westerners react like a new democratic star was rising on the Union’s eastern shores. But this is not new, Minsk has given almost no positive signs and neither signs of weakness, so transition during the last 15 years never seemed to be an option.

Unsurprisingly state TV is emphasising the minor improvements rather than the negative conclusions.

It is hardly a revelation that Lukashenko is making it difficult for Belarus to have a post-Lukashenko transition - why on earth would it be in his interest to make it easy?!

He remains the longest serving political leader in Europe thanks to preventing any potential economic or regional centres of power from emerging, pre-empting the emergence of any successor through regular rotation of cadres and ministers, successfully playing off Russia against the EU far more deftly than many give him credit, and all to often sitting back and allowing the opposition to squabble amongst themselves.