http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/german-election-pollwatch/ European Opinion Mon, 13 Feb 2012 07:39:06 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/german-election-pollwatch/comment-page-1/#comment-10799 CCBC Fri, 16 Sep 2005 14:57:46 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/wordpress/?p=1879#comment-10799 "buggered imagination"/imagination buggering: God, I love this site! Mike “buggered imagination”/imagination buggering: God, I love this site!
Mike

]]> http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/german-election-pollwatch/comment-page-1/#comment-10798 Joerg Wenck Thu, 15 Sep 2005 03:07:59 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/wordpress/?p=1879#comment-10798 Finally a person that doesn´t have a surrealistic take on German politics. The only quibble would have to be that “toleration” doesn´t have to imply a quasi-coalition. It would indeed be possible for Schröder to present an agenda, form a Red-Green minority government and see who is willing to cooperate on which parts of the agenda in parliament. I am mentioning this because – Merkel´s public relations coups notwithstanding – the Union is as deeply divided on some issues as the three parties to the left of the Union are. Given the fact that regional elections can always change the political landscape significantly and induce tactical and strategic reconsiderations on the part of politicians whom Schröder might erroneously suppose to have “bagged” in some sort of stable agreement, he would be best advised to define what he wants to achieve and let anyone caring to lend his support do so. There is, e.g., broad support in Germany for the core premises of the Social Democrats´ health care concepts – not just among the electorate, but also among a large minority in the Union.
In terms of political survival, any party is best served by not letting another party infringe on its copyrights on initiatives that have proven to be practical. The CDU has tried several times to “assimilate” positions originally staked out by Schröder – “Eigenheimzulage” comes to mind. In a grand coalition, it would be a foregone conclusion that the winner in this game would be the CDU – which is the reason why Schröder wouldn´t be available for such a configuration as a minority partner even if he felt that he might still be hungry enough for the top job four years from now.
As to the actual outcome, Union/FDP remains much more likely than anything else. The last two regional elections have shown that Red/Green fared significantly better in the preceding polls than in the voting booth. I´d really bet 95:5 against Schröder.

]]> http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/german-election-pollwatch/comment-page-1/#comment-10797 Georg Tue, 13 Sep 2005 22:18:59 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/wordpress/?p=1879#comment-10797 Here's what's possible and what not: 1) Union/FDP. Most likely IMO. At the end of the day, swing voters will decide they ARE fed up with what they have had. 2) Grand coalition Union/SPD. Mind you, this one is the only scenario under which Schroeder's decision to throw in the towel and call early elections makes any sense - he needs a majority in the federal chamber to implement anything. 3) Red-Green tolerated by a choice of Union/FDP. The PDS is out of the question for foreign policy reasons and does not help in the federal chamber. 4) Everything else - forget it. The FDP won't play, and the PDS won't be allowed to play. Here’s what’s possible and what not: 1) Union/FDP. Most likely IMO. At the end of the day, swing voters will decide they ARE fed up with what they have had. 2) Grand coalition Union/SPD. Mind you, this one is the only scenario under which Schroeder’s decision to throw in the towel and call early elections makes any sense – he needs a majority in the federal chamber to implement anything. 3) Red-Green tolerated by a choice of Union/FDP. The PDS is out of the question for foreign policy reasons and does not help in the federal chamber. 4) Everything else – forget it. The FDP won’t play, and the PDS won’t be allowed to play.

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