German election roundup

The last lot of German polls are out, showing a modest recovery for the SPD but nothing strategically epic. However, some polls have shown enough recovery to put some pressure on the FDP’s calculations. We’re in the realm of statistical noise here.

It’s quite surprising just how dull the campaign has been – the main parties essentially arguing that they won’t drop the ball, although they’d be happy with some more votes for their faintly more radical partners. I’m sticking with my prediction that the SPD will pick up a bit more and that then we’ll go into Klausur with the other parties; whatever happens, don’t bet against Angela Merkel as a committee politician. This is despite the economic crisis, and more recently, the Kunduz air raid, which even induced the chancellor to refer to “war”.

It’s not as if nothing is happening; a senior Green resigns over sensational videos of the party’s co-leader. Sensational videos of Renate Künast fishing, that is. This is a resigning matter, but not for her.

As far as the German engagement in Afghanistan goes, there is a row going on about the idea of paying for the training and deployment of 2,500 extra Afghan soldiers in the German sector. This has resulted in a very unusual outbreak of harmony between the CSU and the Greens, both of whom think it’s a good idea; but the government much less so. This wraps into the row between the US and Germany about the Kunduz incident, which seems to be on hold until after the election, just as any decisions about strategy or tactics are.

In fact, all the decisions are. It feels like the current European way; elections without decisions.

7 thoughts on “German election roundup

  1. This is not entirely true. This election will decide some economic matters, primarily the extent to which the current deficit will be payed for by tax hikes or spending cuts from 2011 on. And it’ll decide on nuclear power.

  2. Not really; I would think the climate talks and the prices of natgas and CO2 permits would decide that. I rather suspect the Atomausstieg is going to be forever delayed, und das ist auch gut so.

    Unless Die Linke became the dominant party, in which case I guess they’ll burn coal.

  3. Afghanistan is a problem that is hurting many countries, that have to send soldiers to die there. It is funny that the US never send troops to Columbia to deal with the drug lords there.

  4. hey, what about the pirate party. Wouldn’t it be a sensation if they enter the bundestag. I don’t really know how they fare at recent polls but i’m constantly perceiving them in the media and public space. They have received deserved attention i think because of their dominance in the internet. Last time i checked they were first or second party in studyvz one of the largest social network sites in Germany. Especially in such a dull campaign this is refreshing.

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  6. I’d be surprised if the Pirate Party got much more than 1 % of the vote. The party lacks any political vision so far. This doesn’t work for a federal election.

    There’s one important thing not mentioned in this article. For the first time in the history of the FRG a coalition could win a majority of seats despite having gained less votes than the opposition in the Parliament based on an electoral already declared illegal by the Constitutional Court (though the Court only demanded the law to be changed by 2011). I certainly don’t hope it plays out like that as it could trigger a constitutional crisis.

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