Moldova could be “the Ukraine of 2005,” that is the geopolitical asset whose loss will result in new costs to Russia. The forthcoming parliamentary elections there have every chance of becoming a smaller version of the Kiev events. Of itself this country is hardly a prize comparable to Ukraine but a drastic change to the situation will bring to the fore the problem of the Dniester Region, which could become the chief local conflict. Europe has long had it in for the unrecognized republic which in the West is always referred to as “a criminal pseudo-state.” For over a year now Moscow has been sidelined from the process of regulating the conflict and with the change of power in Kiev Ukraine’s position will change from being pro-Dniester Region to support for European efforts.

Since many inhabitants of the Dniester Region have the passports of Russian Federation citizens and the Russian military remain there despite pledges to withdraw which Moscow made in 1999, the next “cold conflict” between the West and Russia has been programmed.