Five thirty-eight plus twenty-seven

Rendard Sexton, writing at fivethiryeight, offers a handy intro to next month’s elections to the European Parliament. The comments are well informed and also offer corrections to minor missteps in the post.

For aficionados, the main value is a link to efforts from a global communications company to forecast the outcome. The short version: little difference from the EP elected in 2004, with the biggest changes coming within coalitions rather than between them. Conservatives plus liberals will be enough to elect the next president of the commission, unless the liberals switch sides, in which case the whole of the left plus liberals and greens will be needed. A bit like Germany, actually.

Anyway, voting starts next week. Isn’t everyone excited?

This entry was posted in A Fistful Of Euros, Governments and parties, Political issues, The European Union by Doug Merrill. Bookmark the permalink.

About Doug Merrill

Freelance journalist based in Tbilisi, following stints in Atlanta, Budapest, Munich, Warsaw and Washington. Worked for a German think tank, discovered it was incompatible with repaying US student loans. Spent two years in financial markets. Bicycled from Vilnius to Tallinn. Climbed highest mountains in two Alpine countries (the easy ones, though). American center-left, with strong yellow dog tendencies. Arrived in the Caucasus two weeks before its latest war.

4 thoughts on “Five thirty-eight plus twenty-seven

  1. for more excitement check the smart voting system (currently english version is in demo only, but still gives quite interesting results)

  2. Actually, voting has started in Sweden (and if I’m not completely mistaken, it is also possible to cast an early ballot in Denmark now).

    The elefants in the room up here:
    1. Will turn-out be high enough to get the attached amendment to the Succession Act past the 40%-hurdle.
    2. What happens to the anti-EU movements: Will they lose representation, will only one of the two make it to the EP (in all likelihood the end of the June Movement) or will they keep both seats.

  3. Yeah, voting has already started here in Finland as well, and people are as excited as ever. Sarcasm intended; the preliminary surveys indicate that only 36% of the voters are really planning to exercise their right at the ballot box (back in 2004, the turnout was 41,1%).

    Here’s a free synapsis of the local issues:

    1. As usual, the Social Democrats will try to challenge the Coalition and the Centre. The EU elections aren’t exactly high-profile events, but a victory might still give the SDP a much-needed shot in the arm and grant the domestic opposition politics a new momentum.

    2. The Coalition and the Centre are fed up with the President’s adamant insistence in showing up at every damn EU summit.

    3. The “True Finns” – the resident populist, nativist anti-EU party – are serious about getting their very first MEP. As it is, this seems a very real possibility, and the party has already announced its intention to join the “Libertas” group. For those who don’t know, Timo Soini, the leader of the “True Finns”, their main candidate and one of the likely winners in the elections, belongs in the Roman Catholic Church.

    4. Meanwhile, the Swedish People’s Party – which is part of the Liberal Group in the European Parliament – is very likely to lose its only MEP. The Left-Wing Alliance – which belongs in the GUE/NGL – is almost certain to lose its only MEP.

    5. Father Mitro Repo, a very popular Orthodox priest who’s standing as a Social Democratic candidate in the current elections, has been temporarily expelled from priesthood. After consulting the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople and thinking over the matter, His Eminence Leo, Primate and the Most Reverend Arch-Bishop of Karelia and All Finland, decided that it’s not possible for an Orthodox priest to be involved in politics and remain as a priest. As a consequence, Mitro had to return his vestments yesterday.

    Considering that the EU elections are boring and don’t arouse much interest in the populace, there has been quite a bit of drama, actually.


    J. J.

  4. In Germany we expect the results to reflect the failure of the Grand Coalition (Social Democr. – SPD + Christian Union – CDU) with the Social Democr. losing votes, the Christina Union maintaining its share and the Liberals (FDP) winning votes. Maybe the extreme leftist party (The Leftists) is able to make an stand against the other parties because of the economic crisis. But thsi is not expected to be a permanent trend.

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