First results

The first preliminary projections in the German election have been released, as usual, at 18.00. As expected, the Union have the most votes. As unexpected, they’re not doing nearly as well as people had thought, polling a mere 2% ahead of the SPD at 35.7%. Of those 10 million voters ‘undecided’ as the campaign drew to a close, 30% broke for the Union, but 33% for SPD. The big surprise is the FDP, who with more than 10% are doing much better than I’d have expected. But at this point neither B/Y nor R/G have a majority.

This is all to be taken with many very large grains of salt. It’s early evening yet, and those numbers are but a preliminary extrapolation. Still, at this moment the likeliest outcomes (to judge on a purely numerical basis) seem to be a grand coalition or the ‘Ampel‘ that everybody had been rejecting out of hand.

5 thoughts on “First results

  1. I see these results with serious concern. Seems the German public still isn’t ready for change.

    I wonder how the negotiations will go. If there’s going to be a grand coalition it will take some time to get it together and even then there’s the question on how effective any future reforms will be implemented.

    I have a strong feeling that the German DAX is going to take a hit on monday.

  2. Just in, Schroder stated in his speech that he wants to lead the SPD for another 4 years AND wants to be Chancellor.

    I feel so assured about Germany…

  3. “Of those 10 million voters ’undecided’ as the campaign drew to a close, 30% broke for the Union, but 33% for SPD.”

    Now, please tell me, how did you calculate that with such accuracy ?
    Pretty amazing, if one considers that the statistics don’t tell one how many of those ‘undecided’ voters did vote at all, or how many ‘decided’ CDU supporters stayed at home, confident that their party would win anyway.

  4. “You don’t figure she’s simply citing the exit polls?”

    No. *somewhat embarrased*

    I think these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. I doubt that at the exit polls they asked people whether they were undecided a week (or so) before the polls. This still leaves the essence of my question: Where do those numbers come from, I suspect that someone tried to take an educated gues (emphasis on “gues”), probably by simply attributing the difference of previous forecasts and the actual results to those ‘undecided’ voters.

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