Sorry.

Doug M.

That leaves Ronnie, Ike, Johnnie Reb and Kitty, one of which has to mark the Korea-Japan-Taiwan commitment. 3 is the absolute maximum they can do, and even that involves employing a ship early in the training cycle (Reagan).

“The FRP [Fleet Response Plan] calls for six carriers out of the total fleet of 12 to be “surge capable” — able to be under way in 30 days or fewer, with a follow-on surge of two more carriers within 90 days — at any time.”

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=283678

http://www.ne.jp/asahi/gonavy/atsugi/gonavy604.html

3 to 4 is the probable number to deploy for an attack on Iran.

Warships can sail at 30+ knots, that’s 500 nautical miles a day. In less than a week, you could have half-dozen CVNs in the Arabian Sea, plus I don’t how amphibious assaults, and all the escorts. The B1, B2, & B52 can fire plenty of tomahawks at stand-off range.

421 in a carrier group yes, but you also have the four Ohio-class subs, each with 154 tomahawks. No reason for them to be elsewhere, eh?

The main point is, you cannot just count the forces in-theater.

The US will not attack out of the blue, for several reasons, one being reducing diplomatic fallout, and two precisely for being able to concentrate a maximum of assets.

Expect a casus belli incident, with the US issuing an ultimatum of a few days, during which forces deploying, before the shooting starts.

Warships can sail at 30+ knots, that’s 500 nautical miles a day. In less than a week, you could have half-dozen CVNs in the Arabian Sea, plus I don’t how amphibious assaults, and all the escorts. The B1, B2, & B52 can fire plenty of tomahawks at stand-off range.

421 in a carrier group yes, but you also have the four Ohio-class subs, each with 154 tomahawks. No reason for them to be elsewhere, eh?

The main point is, you cannot just count the forces in-theater.

The US will not attack out of the blue, for several reasons, one being reducing diplomatic fallout, and two precisely for being able to concentrate a maximum of assets.

Expect a casus belli incident, with the US issuing an ultimatum of a few days, during which forces deploying, before the shooting starts.

That isn’t information. If the Reagan is, as per the null hypothesis, going to Japan, she will take her carrier air wing with her. Carriers don’t deploy without planes. She will do this whereever she is bound.

Then you have the B-52s at Diego Garcia.

The B-1s and B-2s can fly from the US, as they did in Afghanistan and Iraq, and KC-135s tankers have recently been based in Bulgaria and Romania.

An F-16 squadron has also been based at Incirlik in Turkey (not sure if the would be allowed by the Turkish govermment to participate though).

There are six Buffs on Diego Garcia. The big aircraft will be far less important in any attack on Iran than they have been over Iraq and Afghanistan, because this will be a “two-way range” as the soldiers say - the other side can shoot back. The B-1s and B-2s will have to do their cold war role, rather than circling overtarget waiting for calls to drop JDAMs, so you only get one strike per sortie. The B52s can’t go kebabside at all unless the major SAM threat is eliminated.

Further, yes, there’s an F16 squadron at Incirlik. They are providing CAS in Iraq. Those 100 strike aircraft needed are *additional* to the existing force.

Then who knows how many subs capable of launching cruise missiles there are in the neighbourhood?

We know precisely how many TLAMs would be available to a 3 carrier group: 421. See the document.

At the end of January, that was reassigned to be the second carrier in the Gulf, instead of the USS Reagan, which is to take over the Kitty Hawk’s station.

But the later is first to sail to San Diego, where it is to pick up 80 planes.

So, the Stennis & the Reagan are sailing west *more or less together*…

Then you have the B-52s at Diego Garcia.

The B-1s and B-2s can fly from the US, as they did in Afghanistan and Iraq, and KC-135s tankers have recently been based in Bulgaria and Romania.

An F-16 squadron has also been based at Incirlik in Turkey (not sure if the would be allowed by the Turkish govermment to participate though).

The air assets in Iraq could very rapidly be massively reinforced by aircraft stationed in Europe (and from the US for that matter), especially if fuel and munitions is already prepositioned.

Then who knows how many subs capable of launching cruise missiles there are in the neighbourhood?

Last, but certainly not least, do not forget the USS Boxer with its the complement of AV-8 Harriers. And, serendipitously, the USS Bataan is on its way to transport fresh Marines for the “surge”…

That makes two LHD’s availabe, each with a MEU aboard. That’s very handy to take over all those Iranian oil platforms and the oil terminal on Siri island…