Comments on: More Bigtime Divergence

By: P O'Neill

P O'Neill — Mon, 19 Sep 2005 22:03:24 +0000

The issue with the African TFR is not just the level but where it is occurring. There is a big question about whether it makes any sense for people to be trying to live in the Sahel. This is going to be a precarious existence at the best of times, and these are not the best of times. Yet aid flows may well postpone the will of governments to do something about it. Clearly it’s not easy to consider the prospect that millions of people are living in the “wrong” place. But recurring crises should be causing some serious thinking about this.

By: Maynard Handley

Maynard Handley — Sat, 17 Sep 2005 09:19:36 +0000

“In Europe the greatest demographic shock since the Black Death was suffered by France during the First World War”

I have seen in more than one place *stunning* claims for the slaughter rate in Germany (or, you know, the area of land that is now called Germany) during the 30yrs war, claims like 2/3rds of the population killed. [I assume most of these came about from disruption of society leading to famine and disease, not from direct killing in battles.]
That doesn’t seem to square with the statement above.
Anyone have comments on this?

By: Oliver

Oliver — Sat, 17 Sep 2005 04:41:36 +0000

WW1 surely had an effect on a very specific age and sex group.

By: Maynard Handley

Maynard Handley — Sat, 17 Sep 2005 03:43:19 +0000

“In Europe the greatest demographic shock since the Black Death was suffered by France during the First World War”

By: Maynard Handley

Maynard Handley — Sat, 17 Sep 2005 03:37:28 +0000

“In Europe the greatest demographic shock since the Black Death was suffered by France during the First World War”

By: Edward

Edward — Sat, 17 Sep 2005 01:37:04 +0000

“The very high TFR countries are almost all in the Sahel and not in Southern Africa where aids is concentrated.”

Sorry, when I was talking about the ’stall’, I was talking about contries - like Kenya, Ghana - which have begun the transition and then got stuck. There is some insinuation that aids is a factor. If you’re really interested here is some ’state of the art’ research:

“The 2003 DHS for Kenya has indicated a clear stall in the decline of fertility, in contraceptive prevalence, and most intriguing a reversal of the long-term trend toward intentions to have fewer children. This trend seems pervasive and has occurred across ages and parities, in urban and rural areas, and in every province. It is particularly dramatic among the less educated while among women with at least some secondary schooling, the familiar trend toward wanting fewer children has continued. The paper will explore the details of these changes and will include analyses of the relationship with HIV/AIDS and with the recent increase in child mortality. The shift in preferences is only part of the story, however, since there has also been a significant increase in the proportion of births that are unwanted. Recent trends in contraceptive failure rates will be analyzed.”

http://iussp2005.princeton.edu/download.aspx?submissionId=50772

By: c

Sat, 17 Sep 2005 01:22:03 +0000

The very high TFR countries are almost all in the Sahel and not in Southern Africa where aids is concentrated.
Those high TFR countries is also that most of them have a very low population density and you need (atleast regional) a high population density to develop. So it may be that they in fact need a high TFR to develop

By: Edward

Edward — Fri, 16 Sep 2005 21:24:15 +0000

“All the high TFR countries you name are African hellholes where education etc. are still rare.”

Well for once this isn’t just me, but is actually the UN.

“and with a bit of luck, for the people there, it will be soon.”

Well I think there is more than simply luck. Good birth control support and as you say education are part of the key. Also stopping the spread of Aids is urgent. There is now some interesting evidence that declining birthrates are stalling in those countries most affected as mothers try to anticipate for those they are about to lose by having more.

If you really want to attack poverty then this issue has to be confronted and solved. Doing something about agricultural subsidies and cancelling debt are important, but on their own they will fail.

By: c

Fri, 16 Sep 2005 21:04:37 +0000

All the high TFR countries you name are African hellholes where education etc. are still rare. The Stan’s are AFAIK the only Asian countries who still have a high TFR.
So i assume that they are the last who will lose their high TFR and with a bit of luck, for the people there, it will be soon.

ps. Bantustans have historically also high TFR’s but that is mostly due to an absent of jobs and opportunities and are for world population totally unimportant as their total population is by definition tiny with that of the world