If the ICJ rules in Kosovo’s favor, it’s basically game over — there will be a bunch of new recognitions, enough to guarantee Kosovo a majority in both the General Assembly and the Security Council within a year or two. At that point the paradigm shifts to “Kosovo is independent except for Russia’s veto”.

If the ICJ rules against, then things get complicated. Some countries may retract their recognitions. Most will not, but the recognizers will remain a minority. On the ground, the current status quo will continue.

We’ll know next year.

Doug M.

And imagining Serbia will accept Kosovo independence is ridiculous…

So, what is big plan? What will be used to force Serbia to accept independence of Kosovo?

And you think that Serbia will become an EU member-state sometime soon because … ? Maybe Serbia and Kosova will get in simultaneously.

At any rate, Kosovar independence is a done deal. More than fifty countries recognize it, state structures are already in place, and imagining a restoration of Serbian sovereignty is ridiculous.

Setting aside motifs, and i/legality of Kosovan (and Abkhazian/Ossetian) declaration of independence, I always wonder what is EU/USA plan for ending Kosovo crisis?

It seems that they are head over heels to prove to Serbia that it will not be punished — EU talks advance, etc.

I still cannot imagine government in Serbia accepting Kosovo independence, regardless which party is in power. So, when USA accepted Kosovo independence as a fact, how they plan to convince Serbia to accept it? As it seems, Serbia will enter EU well before Kosovo. As member of EU, it will never accept Kosovo as EU member.

It seems to me that USA thought that Russia will blink in this game of poker, as many times before and leave Serbia without support. Well, that didn’t happen and they destroyed international system and left Kosovo as a black hole in Balkans.

Recent moves from some EU members actually indicate that there is some underlying racism behind decisions to recognize Kosovo independence — they actually like Kosovo separated from Serbia, because they like to impose more restrictions on Albanians. For example, there is huge momentum to grant visa-free travel to Serb citizens and major choke point was that EU wanted guarantees that Albanians from Kosovo will not get Serbian passports (easily), so they can keep strict visa regime towards Kosovars.