Comments on: Did Russia come out ahead in the gas crisis? http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/europe-and-the-world/did-russia-come-out-ahead-in-the-gas-crisis/ European Opinion Thu, 04 Dec 2008 00:07:14 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Hektor Bim http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/europe-and-the-world/did-russia-come-out-ahead-in-the-gas-crisis/#comment-12784 Hektor Bim Thu, 12 Jan 2006 23:05:18 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/wordpress/?p=2283#comment-12784 This analysis underplays the effect of the gas crisis on both Ukrainian and European domestic politics. First off, nobody likes being bullied, and it is pretty clear that the Ukrainian public was annoyed at the Russian bullying. You are right that tactics of this kind worked in Latin America, but Latin American countries had no alternative. Ukraine has a clear alternative (Europe), and that alternative is clearly better in the long run. Compare Poland and Moldova, for example. The short-term effect of the crisis has been to boost Yushchenko's popularity in Ukraine, and he may well win the next elections because of it. This is of course exactly what happened the last time Russia intervened in Ukrainian domestic politics. Note also that European domestic considerations are increasingly wary of Russia, and the most pro-Russian (almost bootlicking) premier is gone (Schroeder). So this may further political considerations to seek alternate energy sources and thus largely weaken Russia's power in the future. Russia needs to sell gas more than its customers need to buy it. So I don't think this will play out the same way as in Latin America, precisely because both Europe and Ukraine have alternatives and some countervailing power of their own. This analysis underplays the effect of the gas crisis on both Ukrainian and European domestic politics.

First off, nobody likes being bullied, and it is pretty clear that the Ukrainian public was annoyed at the Russian bullying. You are right that tactics of this kind worked in Latin America, but Latin American countries had no alternative. Ukraine has a clear alternative (Europe), and that alternative is clearly better in the long run. Compare Poland and Moldova, for example. The short-term effect of the crisis has been to boost Yushchenko’s popularity in Ukraine, and he may well win the next elections because of it. This is of course exactly what happened the last time Russia intervened in Ukrainian domestic politics.

Note also that European domestic considerations are increasingly wary of Russia, and the most pro-Russian (almost bootlicking) premier is gone (Schroeder). So this may further political considerations to seek alternate energy sources and thus largely weaken Russia’s power in the future. Russia needs to sell gas more than its customers need to buy it.

So I don’t think this will play out the same way as in Latin America, precisely because both Europe and Ukraine have alternatives and some countervailing power of their own.

]]> By: Maynard Handley http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/europe-and-the-world/did-russia-come-out-ahead-in-the-gas-crisis/#comment-12783 Maynard Handley Thu, 12 Jan 2006 07:06:03 +0000 http://fistfulofeuros.net/wordpress/?p=2283#comment-12783 I just want to thank Scott for this article. A lot of what goes in this blog, like all blogs, is just us mouthing off, spouting opinions everyone else knows, and such like. Fun, but not essential. But an article like this, at least for me, puts so much in perspective and really does a serious job of informing me of things I did not know. I just want to thank Scott for this article.
A lot of what goes in this blog, like all blogs, is just us mouthing off, spouting opinions everyone else knows, and such like. Fun, but not essential. But an article like this, at least for me, puts so much in perspective and really does a serious job of informing me of things I did not know.

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