Eurabia Fans: Not just stupider than you think…

Stupider than you can imagine. Evidence, the map over at this fine post from Sadly, No!. Read the whole thing, but as well as introducing the best title for a blog post ever, they’ve caught “Gates Of Vienna” pretending that in the future, Europe will be divided into Islamic states (with incredibly silly names), Russian protectorates, and the Russian empire, due to teh demographic menace.

Yes, that’s right – they think Russia doesn’t have a demographics problem. They also think that although Iceland will become an Islamic state, Switzerland and, for some bizarre reason, the Czech Republic will remain “neutral”. And Germany will re-divide, with the old Federal Republic sliding into Islamic rule and the old DDR being a Russian protectorate.

Either that, or they’re using a map that’s still got East Germany on it. It feels a bit like mocking cripples to take the piss out of people who are obviously so ill-equipped to take part in any kind of debate, but, what the hell! Read the whole thing and don’t forget to bring your fisker.

But among the routine partisan knockabout, there’s a gem – this UPI article on demographics, which finally offers Randy McDonald some relief in his role as the NATO-standard debunker. Martin Walker notes the French demographic turn-around, but the especially interesting bit is that he actually has some numbers on the rate at which immigrant groups’ TFRs converge with the norm.

The birthrates of Muslim women in Europe have been falling significantly for some time. In the Netherlands, for example, the TFR among Dutch-born women rose between 1990 and 2005 from 1.6 to 1.7. In the same period for Moroccan-born women in Holland it fell from 4.9 to 2.9, and for Turkish-born women in Holland from 3.2 to 1.9.

In Austria, the TFR of Muslim women fell from 3.1 to 2.3 from 1981 to 2001. In 1970 Turkish-born women in Germany had on average two children more than German-born women. By 1996 the difference had fallen to one child and has now dropped to 0.5. These sharp falls reflect important cultural shifts, which include the impact of universal female education, rising living standards, the effect of local cultural norms and availability of contraception.

There is, as they say, no crisis. However, this doesn’t overturn something else we occasionally point out on AFOE, which is that whatever happens in Europe, the demographic transition is worldwide. Unlike my dear colleague, I personally think this is a damn good thing in the light of energy, environmental, and international security issues. I’d much rather be K-selected than r-selected.

The global trend is down, very sharply down. In all, 80 countries around the world, comprising almost half the Earth’s population, are now experiencing a birthrate that is below replacement….With a few exceptions like Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories, Haiti and Guatemala, the countries still experiencing strong population growth are all in sub-Saharan Africa. Depending on its birthrate, the current 750 million are likely to become between 1.5 billion and 3 billion by the end of this century. And if European, Latin American and Arab birthrates continue to decline, then Islam as well as Christianity will be a predominantly African religion, with some outposts in Europe.

Which raises the question, what kind of Islam will that be? The rise of African Christianity has been a force for conservatism and fundamentalism in the Anglican Communion and the Roman Catholic Church; but the rise of African Islam looks likely to be a phenomenon of the city, what the Lounsbury calls the “Pious Middle” class. In this context it’s interesting to note that several African countries already have political parties that have adopted the language of Turkey’s Justice and Development Party; it’s not impossible that this Islamic Christian Democracy might find its niche in African cities.

16 thoughts on “Eurabia Fans: Not just stupider than you think…

  1. > Either that, or they’re using a map that’s still got East Germany on it.

    It this was the case, there would be also former Czechoslovakia and not separate Slovakia and Czech republic. Just a little note, never mind 🙂

  2. Well, that did spring to mind; but the map has the *exact inter-German border*…

  3. “Al-lemania”? Apparently these will be Arabs and Muslims whose first language is Espanol?

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  5. Thank you so much for debunking theses idiotic demographic notions that, far from being limited to the far right, are starting to appear in forums all over Europe in support of neocon theories.

    Although I agree that Africa will be the main continent to experience an expansion of Islam, and not Europe, I think it might be overly optimistic to see the emergence of Islamic and/or Christian Democracy as the main trend in “frontier countries”. Based on recent occurrences in Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire (but also Central Africa), I have trouble imagining a comprehensive agreement between the new Islamic communities and the other Christian / Animist permitting a stable democratic evolution.

  6. The whole Eurabia narritave was never ambout demographics. It is a rather pathatic attempt to discredit European opposition to the war in Iraq and US policy in the Middle East in general.

    As sovergin democratic states, the opposition in European nations could not be dismissed as something as simple as the general public thinking the war was stupid. The US government only supports democercy in other naitons when it matchs thier own agenda. Hence, ‘Europeans oppossed the the war in Iraq because they are scared of the Arabs!’. I guess the fact that Europeans have a far better idea of what WAR really is about means nothing to the armchair generals.

    The stupider thing is that the rather naff narrative has taken on a life of its own and is being reproduced…feeding into a growing anti-European and isolationist agenda among some in the US. It makes sense in a way, the cold war is over so they need a new enemy….

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  10. Well, I have to disagree on the demographics thing: so far, most evidence seem to point to a shrinking population being bad for the economy, which will slow the efforts of countries like China to develop a decent standard of living, and hurt the economies of first-world countries which will probably require some major outlays to deal with the problems of a post-petroleum transition and global warming. To deal with the global effects of economic growth and industry, we need _more_ technology and _more_ development, not less.

    Of course, a shrinking population can be compensated for with immigration from still growing areas, but that is badly hampered by yahoo attitudes such as of the Eurabia crowd. I really don’t see the seriously negative population growth rates in countries such as Japan or Italy as something to crow about.

    (And yes, Subsaharan African growth rates are not a good thing – why can’t everyone stick to a sensible 2.5 kids per couple, dagnabit? (:)} )


  11. “Well, that did spring to mind; but the map has the *exact inter-German border*”

    They don’t–they cut off part of western Thuringia with a suspiciously shaky line.

    It’s worse than using a Cold War-era map: they’re _hand-drawing_ a fascimile. Not even cut-and-paste! I tell you.

  12. I think the most insightful comment I’ve seen on this subject is by D.N. Nation at Sadly, No!:

    “Anyway, look at that map. Russia vs. Muslims vs. USA. It’s like porn to these people.”

    Porn isn’t even intended to be realistic.

    That map, though, is a real gem. (I particularly like the puns, the confusing inclusion of certain rivers, the reunification of Yugoslavia minus the Banat Protectorate, and the fact it manages to get Eurabia and the Russian menace into one map.) Some of the lines are probably shaky because its creator was getting excited just by drawing it.

    This post by Baron Bodissey seems to be more relevant than the one linked at Sadly, No!:

    A telling comment by the creator:

    “It’s my future, and I’ll have imams in Iceland if I wanna…”

  13. Pesumably, the future US will be called Al-Goria.

    But please, that map was a joke, right?

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