Chris “Stumbling and Mumbling” Dillow has a very interesting post on signs of German economic recovery. Interestingly, the bellwether Ifo confidence index has shown a dramatic uptick, reaching its highest level since 1991. Dillow proceeds to examine its correlation with the DAX stock market index.
Now, as Chris points out, DAX-constituents are likely to be the most globalised German businesses. The DAX tracks the Ifo with about a three month lag. This all suggests that a) the most globalised German businesses are feeling chirpy, as you’d expect in an economy struggling to raise domestic demand that trades with several raging boomers, and b) that some things never change.
Back before the Second World War, before the Nazi seizure of power, there was something known as the Exportventil in German. This means something like “export safety valve” in translation. What it meant in practice was that German industrialists believed that exporting was a hedge against the economic and political instability at home, and duly specialised in exporting as much stuff as possible. That is pretty much exactly opposite to what you’d expect – after all, you normally assume that German businesses know more about Germany than Country X and therefore face lower risks at home, not to mention the foreign exchange risk involved.
There were good reasons for this, though – economic conditions inside Germany were dire, the devaluation of the mark was helpful – and alternatively you could price your products in hard currency and thus protect yourself against the hyperinflation. It also helped that you had a stream of foreign-denominated revenue, which meant you could borrow in the US. The downside of the Exportventil, though, was that German businesses were highly operationally geared with respect to world trade, and German banks tended to have long-term German assets and short-term US and sterling liabilities.
The onset of the great depression, of course, slashed demand for German exports – and the beggar-your-neighbour policies drained world trade of liquidity, which hit the Germans twice as hard because of export dependence. So the safety valve turned out to be more of a seacock that let more water into the ship. Germany, however, still seems to love exporting – which perhaps explains the strong “home bias” that Chris claims to have identified.
In a tangential theme regarding historical legacies and the way things don’t change, check out this post at Veronica Khokhlova’s. Seems the Ukrainian electoral map divides along the ancient border of Kievan Rus..