hi there, i’ve been a lurker close to your blogging site a few months. i adore this post and your entire site! trying forward ti looking through far more….

this is my 1st time i have a look at here. i located so many entertaining stuff in your blog, specially its dialogue. from the tons of responses on your posts. thank you…

Ostatnio szukalem firmy w warszawie ktora zajmuje sie spawaniem konstrukcji metalowych i znalazlem firme maroma. Nie wiem czemu firma na stronie nie chwali sie zbytnio tym ze oferuje konstrukcje spawane, ale po kontakcie z nimi dowiedzialem sie ze bard…

When I predict that someone will behave badly — i.e., that DS will continue to be a craven bunch of gutless wonders — and I am then, immediately, proven right.

* * * * *

B92: Will the governing coalition collapse because of the lack of support

Đelić: The government’s working, and President Tadić and the DS have always guaranteed our society and country stability, and that’s what we’ll continue to do.

B92: That means you’re not considering withdrawing from the government?

Đelić: We’re working for the good of our citizens, we expect a great victory for Boris Tadić on Sunday. The government will continue to function.

The deputy prime minister also doubts Koštunica’s statement yesterday that he had still not decided who to vote for on Sunday.

“I can’t believe that the prime minister, who is the guarantee of democracy, won’t vote on Sunday. I’m sure that Koštunica who, together with Tadić, and led by Zoran Đinđić, toppled the regime of Milošević, Šešelj and Tomislav Nikolić seven years ago, cannot vote for anyone other than Tadić,“ he predicted.

* * * * *

Bganon, I like you. But let’s be real. Until DS discovers its missing testicles, there is zero chance of G17 or Cedo being any more important than they already are. (In fact, in G17′s case, I think they’re in serious danger of becoming irrelevant and disappearing altogether. I’m sorry to say it, since I have a soft spot for technocrats, but there it is.)

If Tadic wins, this ridiculous government will stagger on. If Nikolic wins… probably, this ridiculous government will stagger on; after a day or two of suffering and complaining, DS and the rest of them will decide that it’s still better to stay in government (where they can work to limit the damage, you know) rather than risk another election. Because elections, you know, are scary.

Doug M.

This would require DS to, as they say, reach down and find a pair.

Theoretically possible, but it would be a big departure from their behavior to date.

Doug M.

My chief problem with the deal is something I’m not sure you have mentioned – the dirty monopoly word. Russians already own Beopetrol and I reckon they will have a majority of the petrol pumps in Serbia (not that I give a toss they should double, no triple the price of petrol in these parts anyway).

‘No… unless G17 and Cedo form the next government (hahahaha, oh please excuse me, ha)’

I’d say that if Nikolic wins that is a realitic option. It goes like this – DS withdraw from government due to lack of DSS support for Tadic. SRS dont want to join the government – trust me they wont. Elections are called and there is an increase in support for DS and LDP. The only question is whether LDP will bite. In the final analysis they would.
It may be an outside bet but its not a joke.

Although there is one little thing that’s kinda making me cough slightly.

“Unless the Serbs decide to nationalize the pipeline — hah.”

I do have to say that I’ve heard of countries with far stupider governments than Serbia, and under far more foreign pressure, renegotiating far less idiotic deals.

Either you’re talking about a relatively short timeframe, or I’m missing some institutional detail. Which is it, may I ask?

Also, the current government has done a pretty good job of painting itself into a corner. Everyone’s been talking about what a *great* deal this is for Serbia. That’s going to make it very hard for them to turn around and “renegotiate”.

And then of course Gazprom has rather a lot of money to throw around. Do you want those campaign contributions or not, Mr. Minister?

No… unless G17 and Cedo form the next government (hahahaha, oh please excuse me, ha), no plausible Serbian government is going to push back very hard. Gazprom will pay very little in taxes, and nobody’s going to complain. Gazprom’s going to follow environmental rules as much or as little as it cares to, and nobody’s going to complain. And if Gazprom breaks its promises, most of Serbia’s politicians will fall over themselves to accept its explanations.

Think United Fruit in Central America, except that Gazprom is far bigger and more powerful than UF could ever be. Not everybody likes bananas, but we all like to stay warm.

Doug M.