Election in Germany

Well, I’m going to go way, way, way out on a limb and say that the grand coalition will continue after today’s German election. What do the rest of you think?

This entry was posted in A Fistful Of Euros, Germany, Governments and parties, Political issues by Doug Merrill. Bookmark the permalink.

About Doug Merrill

Freelance journalist based in Tbilisi, following stints in Atlanta, Budapest, Munich, Warsaw and Washington. Worked for a German think tank, discovered it was incompatible with repaying US student loans. Spent two years in financial markets. Bicycled from Vilnius to Tallinn. Climbed highest mountains in two Alpine countries (the easy ones, though). American center-left, with strong yellow dog tendencies. Arrived in the Caucasus two weeks before its latest war.

4 thoughts on “Election in Germany

  1. Given the error margins in polling and the current political positioning of the parties, three outcomes are possible:
    1) Grand coalition: this would entail massive shrinkage of the Social Democrats in the future. It’s a ticket into Giuseppe Saragat- and Pietro Nenni-land for the Social Democrats.
    2) Conservative/Liberal-coalition: that implies either a stretch of non-government – which people might like – because the anti-civil rights-bent of the CDU and the supply-siderism of the FDP cancel each other out. If they combined these two approaches, however, and put them into action, they would pay a pretty heavy price, too. They would then have to recruit the Greens, which leads us to
    3) the Jamaica-coalition. Did’nt Nader – America’s substitute for a Green – just write a book entitled “Only the Super-Rich can save us?” There’s a thing in there called the People’s Chamber of Commerce. Let me just say that there is change I can believe in but don’t currently see, but also change that I quite definitely can’t believe in in the first place. That’s the variant the political establishment likes best right now, though. The Jamaica coalition may not happen this time around (though I don’t think it’s impossible), but it’s very much on the agenda. If 2a) turns out to be the case, Jamaica is going to arrive after the next general election. In case 2b),I’d expect it before the end of the legislative period.

    So if 1) is what we get, it will just be a preliminary stage to the other possibilities I outlined.

    Also: I didn’t fully understand Alex’s recent point about nuclear. The current reactors would have to be replaced by new ones for an exit to be delayed “forever”. I do see a delay until the current reactors need to be decommissioned because they are EOL. After that, though, it will indeed be a market issue at some point. Maybe new construction will be economically viable with the Indian thorium-type design. But not if the protectionist brigade (Sarkozy, Berlusconi) gets to have a say in that matter. (And why the heck did the media not report on Sarkozy’s outspoken criticism of Obama at the UN?)

  2. I think there will be either a second Grand Coalition or a Conservative-Liberal Coalition. Neither really warms my heart. Especially a Con-Lib Coalition will be more complicated than most people think.
    But in my opinion no Party in Germany really gets whats happening around the world and so they have no promising concept for the future

  3. She pulled it off. Angie and Guido: strikes my ear as more Brooklyn than Berlin, but that’s just me.

    Doug M.

  4. Germany doesnt really need the Indian design in order for nuclear to make economic, if not political sense – Heavy engineering construction is relatively cheap to do in Germany, so bog standard lightwater reactors (effectively, the EPR)is a very, very affordable option per kwh. Cheaper by leagues than renewables are likely to ever get, and potentially cheaper than coal, so the anti nuclear campaigners are worried about a future where nuclear becomes the de-facto solution to carbon emmissions, the entire grid goes that way and all the windmills get torn down and melted into reactor components.

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