Pechter Middle East Polls has a new Egyptian opinion poll out, commissioned by AIPAC’s think tank, WINEP.
It’s from Cairo and Alexandria rather than the whole of Egypt.
52% dispapprove, 15% approve of the Muslim Brotherhood.
27% for, 37% against annulling peace treaty with Israel.
35% support Mubarak, Suleiman or the PM Shafiq, as president, 26% Amr Moussa, 3% El Baradei, 1% Nour, 1% Babi, the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood.
But 57% approve, 17 disapprove of the The Egyptian national association for change, the opposition parties who are part of the protests.
The Brotherhood has mostly rural support, and I bet other cities are less secular.
I guess WINEP supports the revolution? They don’t even acknowledge the poll’s not representative.
You can’t draw too many conclusions from this poll, but I wonder if the opposition’s proposed a yearlong transition before new elections partly because they wanted a chance to establish themselves and organize. I also have a gut feeling that if they do have regime change, they’ll end up with Amr Moussa as president at some point, he just seems like a better politician than anyone in the opposition. He was smart enough to cautiously side with the protesters quite early.
Maybe this will make democracy more palatable to the military and the US. I wouldn’t expect Egypt under someone like Moussa to become a model democracy. At best a Iraq/Turkey style pluralisism mixed with authoritarianism, at worst a democratura. Liberal dissidents like Nour rarely become heads of government for some reason.