Comments on: Three Million Unsold Properties In Spain?

By: news aliens

news aliens — Mon, 07 Nov 2011 05:19:41 +0000

news aliens…

[...]Three Million Unsold Properties In Spain? | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opinion[...]…

By: commercial property news|commercial real estate news|commercial home news

Mon, 24 Oct 2011 11:49:04 +0000

By: Millions of properties for sale! - Absolute Spain Forum

Millions of properties for sale! - Absolute Spain Forum — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 21:00:25 +0000

[...] Unsold Homes | SpanishNews.es Spain Economy Watch: Three Million Unsold Properties In Spain? Three Million Unsold Properties In Spain? | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opinion Thousands of unsold property in Spain – The National 800,000 is the latest estimate of unsold [...]

By: Spanish lesson

Spanish lesson — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 13:05:05 +0000

“Quite, but look at the skill level of the German workforce. Spain urgently needs to find work for five million new immigrants with lov skill level, and little formal education. What high wage export sector do you suggest they could be absorbed in? And, incidentally, Germany had seven paiful years of internal devaluation from 1998 to 2005 to get to this point, and then was only able to do all the exporting on the back of huge bubble driven consumer booms in countries like the UK, the US, Spain, Russia and much of Eastern Europe.”

one solution might be to teach more people spanish?
http://www.spanish.language-classes.com anyone?

By: » Spanish Government to Raise Taxes - The Lawbird Tribune

» Spanish Government to Raise Taxes - The Lawbird Tribune — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 11:05:21 +0000

[...] levels unseen since the days of the II Republic (1931), with a reported stock of between 1.6 to 3 million unsold houses (both resales and new builds), with a Public Deficit spinning out of control adding 80 million [...]

By: Oliver

Oliver — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 13:30:44 +0000

“There is a mistake here. I am talking about a drop in wages AND prices.”

That makes sense except that

1. immigrants want to send money home, so they care about absolute wages (and exchange rates)
2. how would you drop wages low enough for unskilled immigrants to find jobs? I don’t think outside construction you’ll find such jobs (agriculture aside)

By: Three Million Unsold Properties In Spain - Update | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opinion

Sat, 26 Sep 2009 11:03:26 +0000

[...] my last post on this topic, I said the following: My second observation is merely anecdotal, but the Acuña & Asociados [...]

By: Edward Hugh

Edward Hugh — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 10:06:31 +0000

Manuel,

“In your opinion, how big will this internal devaluation be and how the internal deb will be restructured?”

My estimate is 20% should do the trick, but as you can see this isn’t likely to happen. On the debt, the FROB would need to be expanded on the lines of the Irish NAMA, and something will have to be done about the loses on capital values individual mortgage holders will need to take. The ECB can support this process to some extent – as is happening with NAMA – but cannot absorb such large capital loses as Spain will imply. My view is that we then need EU Bonds, and the pain will need to be shared out across all Europeans, just as Florida’s problems were shouldered by all Americans.

By: Edward Hugh

Edward Hugh — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 10:02:40 +0000

Oliver,

“Edward, does competitive exports mean that wages should be cut? If so, aren’t you going for mutually exclusive goals? How do you cut wages and stay attractive to recent immigrants?”

There is a mistake here. I am talking about a drop in wages AND prices. That is why the expression internal devaluation is used – which is only a modern pc euphemism for generalised deflation, which is a horrible thing, but I really don’t see Spain has any alternative now. No one will allow Spain to simply walk away and leave the euro, devalue and default on all that German debt. This would make Lehman Brothers look like a picnic. Spain has to pay, and there is only one way to pay external debt and that is by generating external income – ie exports.

How does this help migrants to stay, well, you give them work that is the point. Certainly they can’t go to their home countries, they would surely be worse off. Of course the big danger comes when the other EU countries start to recover and people start to vote with their feet. Then we could move from 3 million unsold properties to 4 or 5, and you can start to draw your own conclusions from that.

By: Edward Hugh

Edward Hugh — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 09:56:50 +0000

Frederik,

“My bet would be at least 60% fall in cumulative prices from the 2007 level perhaps more.”

You are talking about property prices and I think you are in the right ballpark. I am talking about the levels of the consumer price and hourly wage indexes. Here I think a sharp drop of 20% in both of them would do the trick, unfortunately we won’t get this. So the outlook is pretty bleak.