I understand your basic points and their validity. (Elizabeth Warren in the US has a very good video on these issues.) It’s just that cause and effect factors are complex; many depending on timing and other issues. That’s why I’d have like to have seen a detailed survey done but, of course, when the survey was conducted would alter the outcomes.

The complexity, not the specifics, arise out of an economic actors attitudes and expectations which also change over time. Lifestyle, as I identified, became ‘the’ big theme in Ireland during the late ninties and into the 21st century. Ireland carries alot of historical baggage and the new liberal attitudes towards what constitutes success in our culture changed beyond all recognition. Without this new attitude, continually espoused by the MSM in Ireland, the property bubble would not have developed to such a pernicious degree.

Attitudes impacted on economic developments in Ireland as much as economic decisions impacted on attitudes and expectations.

As I’ve stated I am not arguing with your basic economic premise. As Ireland and other Euro nations created high cost base economies, economics/finaicial factors will undoubtedly impact on a conscious decision to have children and therefore impact overall demographics. However, we cannot discount expectations and attitudes changing over time either.

The bottom line is that the attitudes we’ve developed within the overall social dynamic allied with identifiable economic doctrines may lead to the demise of the poeople who’ve adopted the attitudes and doctrines. There is a sweet irony that the focus on short term asset growth may result in long term population declines. The very markets that require unending growth may, over time and with no change in attitude, destroy the ability of growth through demogrphic change. Short-termism, a consciously adopted attitude which affects our expectations, has long-term implications.

“A poster cited economic factors and the cost of housing as an impediment to rearing a family. I’m not so sure the cause and affect aspects are so simply explained. I know several young couples, who during our Celtic Tiger years, consciously decided to forgo having a family. They want the big house, two cars, plenty of holidays, and children don’t fit this lifestyle.”

Well I do believe in the power of simplicity, as long as you have a strong and valid argument. although I rather would call it, not loosing yourself into details to avoid loosing awareness of the main lines.
In my example I was referring to the Dutch situation and an average Dutch income. I don’t know if the Irish situation is the same. But do you asked those young couples you spoke to, why children don’t fit their lifestyle?

Fact is that the sharply rise of the house prices has had an major effect upon the Dutch society. Was it till about 1970 forbidden for woman by many employers to continuing working after marrying, today it is for the average couple impossible to buy a house on one salary alone. As I told in my earlier reply, the average net income is about 1600 euro/month. This is equal to a gross income of about 32,000 euro/year. (many young people at the beginning of their careers are making of course less money). The Dutch government advices the Dutch mortgagors not to give mortgage to people worth of more then 4,5 times their yearly gross income. Although many banks are willing to lend more money out then the advised amount, there is a maximum. Holland is not the U.S. in this aspect. It is very easy to find out how much you can lend on the internet. On a certain site I filled in the 32,000 euro income, and found out that i can get a 144,000 euro mortgage as maximum (I don‘t think that it is allowed here, to give a link to a commercial site). Much to insufficient to buy an average house which cost about 250,000 euro. So, if an young couple has the ideal of raising a big family and the young woman wants to stay at home to take care of the children, they could not buy a house. Well you can think that to have to work both, is no impediment for a lot of young couples to have many children. But in my opinion you are then denying the obvious.
Ron

I came across your piece and found it quite interesting. Very well done. I was wondering if you were familiar with or have read “The Great Bust Ahead” by Daniel A. Arnold?

Great blog and continued success to you.

HD
Prudens Speculari

You are obvious surprised that I didn’t know any Latvian product’s, but I am sure that the majority of the Dutch is not able to do so. Remember that you are a Fin, and Finland is neighbouring the Baltic states, so it’s logic that people in Finland have some more knowledge about the Baltic’s than the average Dutch does. I did not know Riga Black Balsam, but I did use my last lat’s to buy a bottle of Vana Tallin on Riga airport. I did learn to drink this Estonian liqueur (up to 50% alcohol) during my many visits to Lemberg. The reason I did this, was that I read Edwards article’s about Latvia maybe not longer being able to maintain their peg. So I decide not to take any lat’s back home, afraid that these will suddenly loose a lot of their value.
I do think there is money and jobs to make in the wood production. But I don’t believe it will be anywhere close to enough to pay back for all the investments the Latvians made in real-estate, nice cars, luxury, etc. Like Dismal said, it was better if they invested their money in their industry, so they could create an increase in their national income. I noticed that they did invested in their infrastructure, but infrastructure alone is not creating money.
I use the expression “Slavic culture” to underline that something is not only valid for the Russian culture but for most Slavic societies.
Russian culture is a Slavic culture, but not all Slavic cultures are equal to the Russian culture. Take for example the Polish culture. Ethnical and linguistically they are Slavs, but as being Catholics and using the Latin scripture they historically belong more to the “western culture” then to the Russian culture. But like in Russia, the Polish society also suffers from widespread alcoholism. Although excessive alcohol consumption is common in most Slavic countries, I am not sure if this is always been a traditional Slavic habit, or that it is ”imported” from Russia during the post war Russian control over of these territories.
Ron.

Many Western governments have been planning for this contingency for deacdes. In the absence of creating some sort of low growth and sustainable market mechanisms, they have endorsed immigration, and the attendant increase in comsumption demand, as a solution. You import new workers, hopefully young, and once established hopefully they’ve created a continuing network for future immigration. Nothing wrong with this policy in my estimation. Somebody has to pay for our lifestyles.

I would be interested in seeing a comprehensive survey as to why child-bearing couples forgo having families. A poster cited economic factors and the cost of housing as an impediment to rearing a family. I’m not so sure the cause and affect aspects are so simply explained. I know several young couples, who during our Celtic Tiger years, consciously decided to forgo having a family. They want the big house, two cars, plenty of holidays, and children don’t fit this lifestlye.

Anyway, in a world of diminishing resources and expanding populations, the gradual demise of Western consumption patterns and populations may be no bad thing. There’s no free lunches in this world. If we want a high consumption lifestyle, this lifestyle comes with changes and costs.

“I will try to translate it to a set of system dynamics feedback loops”

Great stuff. Go for it! Mail me if you come up with something.

Edward