Isn’t it endearing, how we always end up “creating” a new deity with a new caste of high priests, who always happen to be more than happy to appeal to our fears with a new back-twisting dogma, trying to keep going whatever they have become?

I think you said it quite well. Economy has become a purpose. No longer a means, but an end.

“I´m sorry fo asking Jasper, but what are you trying to prove here?

That the OECD is sweeping things under the rug? That the OECD has some pro-American bias? That projections always carry with them uncertainty? That the OECD is not paying proper attention to the effects of demography?

For that last point,the OECD has written a lot of reports on the potential effects of ageing. It´s simply a matter of looking it up, it´s all there.”

Don’t be sorry for asking.

Yes, I do get the feeling that the economists at the OECD are a bit biased.

I don’t think their bias is pro-American, though. I think their bias is pro-economy.The whole point of achieving economic growth is to raise the standard of living for the people inside that economy. If you forget that and focus instead on the standard of living of the economy then you’re suffering from what in Dutch is called “beroepsdeformatie”. Like the surgeon who writes: “Surgery succesful. Patient died.”

I would not claim that the OECD are sweeping things under the rug, if only because they are under no obligation to print per capita statistics in their report, but yes, I do think that no per capita stats whatsoever in a 229-page report is a worthnoty omission. So I noted it. People want per capita growth. Is it too much to ask for a stat that shows how well an economy is doing in providing this?

And yes, the reams and reams of paper have been printed by the OECD on the effects that changing demographics will have on economies. I have only read a tiny fraction of it but I am pretty confident that it all shows the same pro-economy bias.

Healthy retirees enjoying their golden years while they could still work? Detrimental to economic growth. (But people want to retire early.)

A worldwide preference for smaller families? Bad for economic growth. (But people want smaller families.)

A shrinking population? Bad for housing construction. (But everybody will be housed.)

Economists should study the economy so they can finetune it to suit the needs of the people living inside this economy. They seem to be studying the economy so they can promote policies that finetune the people to suit the needs of the economy.

I´m sorry fo asking Jasper, but what are you trying to prove here?

That the OECD is sweeping things under the rug? That the OECD has some pro-American bias? That projections always carry with them uncertainty? That the OECD is not paying proper attention to the effects of demography?
For that last point,the OECD has written a lot of reports on the potential effects of ageing. It´s simply a matter of looking it up, it´s all there.

Furthermore if you can keep your GDP stable or manage to slightly increase it whilst having a decling population of course your GDP per capita increases*. It´s a sort of negative growth “bonus”. You simply spread the total wealth over less people. Even if the total GDP declines, per capita people may still get “richer” as long as the population decline is slightly higher.

*Although there´s a debatable issue on where the potential losses of economies of scale and technological progress meet. At some point GDP per capita growth may become negative.

I think Norway will eventually face intense pressure to spend its big pot of gold, most likely if Norway’s economy stagnates or inequality rises to politically unacceptable levels, and whether it will spend the money wisely is anyone’s guess. But I don’t see what difference joining the EU would make per se, given Norway is already in EFTA.

Jasper, it’s been said that Norway is the only country that was able to cope with oil riches without developing serious distributional disfunctionalities. Any idea how a continuously high oil price might affect that? Or the recently allegedly slim majority in favour of EU entry?

http://guerby.org/blog/index.php/2006/05/22/83-l-europe-va-mal
http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2006/5/16/224239/653
http://www.unc.edu/depts/econ/seminars/Faini.pdf