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	<title>Comments on: How many disputed territories have you annexed this week?</title>
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	<description>European Opinion</description>
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		<title>By: Ian</title>
		<link>http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/how-many-disputed-territories-have-you-annexed-this-week/comment-page-1/#comment-21830</link>
		<dc:creator>Ian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Aug 2008 03:38:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3445#comment-21830</guid>
		<description>Russia&#039;s GDP is not very high in current dollars  (still big though) but it is quite high in terms of PPP dollars. And they are growing really fast for 9 years in a raw. Very much like China.

Energy sector is vital for Russia, no doubt about it. In terms of GDP, it constitutes some 11%-13% (incl. electricity generation and distribition) so  Russia is not overly dependent on it. It holds a lion&#039;s share in export, some 45% for oil and gas, but then their trade surplus is some 45%.They in fact can live without selling oil and gas outside the country. Or sell it in the Far East if they would prefer.

Russia is still #8 in scientific papers, not very bad for their underfunded universities. Russia continue to produce some truly sophisticated things from nuclear plants and sattelites to soil improvement technology.

A role of BTC pipeline is most probably exaggerated a bit. It&#039;s a good route, it goes through loyal countries, etc. It just turned out to be that there&#039;s much less oil in the Caspian sea basin then was previously projected. And this oil is contracted already, it goes either to China or to Russia.

Russia&#039;s population is shrinking. And yet it attracts so many immigrants from the neigboring countries due to its increasing wealth that it seems there is actually a growth albeit very moderate. 

I know I sound a bit pro-Russian and this is not actually the case. We all need to get real. Russia has all the resources it needs. From fossil fuel to a proven educational system. They  have a very good record of recovering after major crises from the Civil war to the WWII. They are able to defend their country. We need to talk rather then trying to isolate it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Russia&#8217;s GDP is not very high in current dollars  (still big though) but it is quite high in terms of PPP dollars. And they are growing really fast for 9 years in a raw. Very much like China.</p>
<p>Energy sector is vital for Russia, no doubt about it. In terms of GDP, it constitutes some 11%-13% (incl. electricity generation and distribition) so  Russia is not overly dependent on it. It holds a lion&#8217;s share in export, some 45% for oil and gas, but then their trade surplus is some 45%.They in fact can live without selling oil and gas outside the country. Or sell it in the Far East if they would prefer.</p>
<p>Russia is still #8 in scientific papers, not very bad for their underfunded universities. Russia continue to produce some truly sophisticated things from nuclear plants and sattelites to soil improvement technology.</p>
<p>A role of BTC pipeline is most probably exaggerated a bit. It&#8217;s a good route, it goes through loyal countries, etc. It just turned out to be that there&#8217;s much less oil in the Caspian sea basin then was previously projected. And this oil is contracted already, it goes either to China or to Russia.</p>
<p>Russia&#8217;s population is shrinking. And yet it attracts so many immigrants from the neigboring countries due to its increasing wealth that it seems there is actually a growth albeit very moderate. </p>
<p>I know I sound a bit pro-Russian and this is not actually the case. We all need to get real. Russia has all the resources it needs. From fossil fuel to a proven educational system. They  have a very good record of recovering after major crises from the Civil war to the WWII. They are able to defend their country. We need to talk rather then trying to isolate it.</p>
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		<title>By: The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power - World Affairs Board</title>
		<link>http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/how-many-disputed-territories-have-you-annexed-this-week/comment-page-1/#comment-21717</link>
		<dc:creator>The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power - World Affairs Board</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Aug 2008 07:22:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3445#comment-21717</guid>
		<description>[...] Now that we can measure it,* we find that Russia&#8217;s GDP is approximately equal to that of Portugal Brazil (which is not to knock Brazil). Much of Russia&#8217;s wealth comes from resource extraction: in other words, Russia is not making stuff. Is it thinking stuff instead? Well, is there a nascent biotech or semiconductor industry in Russia today? (Or is there maybe some other, more esoteric kind of activity that hasn&#8217;t yet permeated popular consciousness?) How are Russian universities doing?  Russia is fairly populous, although no one would call it densely populated. However, its population is shrinking; in part, because it is not a healthy country.  So we&#8217;re left with territory - Russia borders a lot of places - and with its military, which still has some potency. Put those two together, and maybe it&#8217;s not surprising that some Russian tanks will pop across the border from time to time. Or at least, they&#8217;ll want to.  One thing I found hard to understand about the last few days was the BTC pipeline bombing. I don&#8217;t think that anyone doubts that the Russian air force could hit it eventually, if they chose, but what would be the point? There&#8217;s no short term strategic consequence: nothing exclusively depends on that particular piece of infrastructure. So unless the Russians bombed it every day - which in itself would delay a profitable peace - they&#8217;d only see the thing rebuilt. If on the other hand, they wanted the pipeline - preciousss - for themselves, they&#8217;d have to invade (and take any further consequences). This possibility must be on people&#8217;s minds, but it seems less likely today than it did yesterday. My suspicion is that the Russians simply missed the pipeline, and then, having thought things through, decided not to have another go.  My geostrategic recommendation, for what little it&#8217;s worth: have strong words with the Ukrainians so that the Russians are allowed to take their boats home unmolested. Negotiate the introduction of a UN monitoring force to be stationed somewhere in the vicinity of South Ossetia. Continue to reduce dependency on oil and gas. And wait. Looking back, one lesson is this: if the Georgians had been militarily competent, they could have made this particular excursion punishingly difficult. The terrain favours defence. Whatever training and equipping may have been going on, it was obviously not up to scratch: we&#8217;ve just seen a failure of basic, local deterrence.    How many disputed territories have you annexed this week? &#124; afoe &#124; A Fistful of Euros &#124; European Opi... [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Now that we can measure it,* we find that Russia&#8217;s GDP is approximately equal to that of Portugal Brazil (which is not to knock Brazil). Much of Russia&#8217;s wealth comes from resource extraction: in other words, Russia is not making stuff. Is it thinking stuff instead? Well, is there a nascent biotech or semiconductor industry in Russia today? (Or is there maybe some other, more esoteric kind of activity that hasn&#8217;t yet permeated popular consciousness?) How are Russian universities doing?  Russia is fairly populous, although no one would call it densely populated. However, its population is shrinking; in part, because it is not a healthy country.  So we&#8217;re left with territory &#8211; Russia borders a lot of places &#8211; and with its military, which still has some potency. Put those two together, and maybe it&#8217;s not surprising that some Russian tanks will pop across the border from time to time. Or at least, they&#8217;ll want to.  One thing I found hard to understand about the last few days was the BTC pipeline bombing. I don&#8217;t think that anyone doubts that the Russian air force could hit it eventually, if they chose, but what would be the point? There&#8217;s no short term strategic consequence: nothing exclusively depends on that particular piece of infrastructure. So unless the Russians bombed it every day &#8211; which in itself would delay a profitable peace &#8211; they&#8217;d only see the thing rebuilt. If on the other hand, they wanted the pipeline &#8211; preciousss &#8211; for themselves, they&#8217;d have to invade (and take any further consequences). This possibility must be on people&#8217;s minds, but it seems less likely today than it did yesterday. My suspicion is that the Russians simply missed the pipeline, and then, having thought things through, decided not to have another go.  My geostrategic recommendation, for what little it&#8217;s worth: have strong words with the Ukrainians so that the Russians are allowed to take their boats home unmolested. Negotiate the introduction of a UN monitoring force to be stationed somewhere in the vicinity of South Ossetia. Continue to reduce dependency on oil and gas. And wait. Looking back, one lesson is this: if the Georgians had been militarily competent, they could have made this particular excursion punishingly difficult. The terrain favours defence. Whatever training and equipping may have been going on, it was obviously not up to scratch: we&#8217;ve just seen a failure of basic, local deterrence.    How many disputed territories have you annexed this week? | afoe | A Fistful of Euros | European Opi&#8230; [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Bear Baiting &#171; Matt Zeitlin: Impetuous Young Whippersnapper</title>
		<link>http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/how-many-disputed-territories-have-you-annexed-this-week/comment-page-1/#comment-21639</link>
		<dc:creator>Bear Baiting &#171; Matt Zeitlin: Impetuous Young Whippersnapper</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2008 18:28:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3445#comment-21639</guid>
		<description>[...] Russia would have to be treating countries in, say, Latin America or Africa as they are Georgia. A quick look at the fundamentals, however, shows that this just isn&#8217;t possible: Now that we can measure it,* we find that [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Russia would have to be treating countries in, say, Latin America or Africa as they are Georgia. A quick look at the fundamentals, however, shows that this just isn&#8217;t possible: Now that we can measure it,* we find that [...]</p>
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		<title>By: And it rolls on &#124; Gavin's Blog</title>
		<link>http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/how-many-disputed-territories-have-you-annexed-this-week/comment-page-1/#comment-21634</link>
		<dc:creator>And it rolls on &#124; Gavin's Blog</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2008 17:32:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3445#comment-21634</guid>
		<description>[...] Charlie Whitaker has a similar roundup to myself. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Charlie Whitaker has a similar roundup to myself. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Matthew Yglesias &#187; Russia&#8217;s Weak Fundamentals</title>
		<link>http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/how-many-disputed-territories-have-you-annexed-this-week/comment-page-1/#comment-21629</link>
		<dc:creator>Matthew Yglesias &#187; Russia&#8217;s Weak Fundamentals</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2008 15:52:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3445#comment-21629</guid>
		<description>[...] Robert Farley, Charlie Whitaker makes the important and too-often-neglected point that notwithstanding Russia&#8217;s evident ability to kick around a tiny country that [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] Robert Farley, Charlie Whitaker makes the important and too-often-neglected point that notwithstanding Russia&#8217;s evident ability to kick around a tiny country that [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Todd Thompson</title>
		<link>http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/how-many-disputed-territories-have-you-annexed-this-week/comment-page-1/#comment-21627</link>
		<dc:creator>Todd Thompson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2008 14:14:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3445#comment-21627</guid>
		<description>@ Jabithew

An exact match is necessary to show the work together hand and glove.  Their positions and actions clearly show they do.

The genocide claim of EU countries and NATO was a farse in the case of Kosovo.  It is probably a farse for S. Ossetia too, although indiscriminant shelling describe of the capitol is questionable, iff that happened.  

In Kosovo, EU countries simply used the genocide claim as an excuse to perform illegal acts of war against Serbia with the goal of regime change and, possibly for a free NATO base in the Balkans.  All claims used as an excuse to attack proved to be fabricated and just plain wrong.  You may beleive that those in charge have bad intelligence gathering, but I do not.  

Afghanistan is also an example of where the US attacked a sovereign nation for the purpose of regime change and EU and NATO are supporting that effort.  The excuse - terrorism against two buildings using airplanes by a group with ties to the regime.  That terrorism group was also in the UN and EU countries, just not welcome. It is questionable.

We now see the fruits of NATO/EU policies like these - South Ossetia.  Like the others, it could have been negotiated out without the use of war.  Based on you beliefs, it appears that you would agree with the Russian position.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Jabithew</p>
<p>An exact match is necessary to show the work together hand and glove.  Their positions and actions clearly show they do.</p>
<p>The genocide claim of EU countries and NATO was a farse in the case of Kosovo.  It is probably a farse for S. Ossetia too, although indiscriminant shelling describe of the capitol is questionable, iff that happened.  </p>
<p>In Kosovo, EU countries simply used the genocide claim as an excuse to perform illegal acts of war against Serbia with the goal of regime change and, possibly for a free NATO base in the Balkans.  All claims used as an excuse to attack proved to be fabricated and just plain wrong.  You may beleive that those in charge have bad intelligence gathering, but I do not.  </p>
<p>Afghanistan is also an example of where the US attacked a sovereign nation for the purpose of regime change and EU and NATO are supporting that effort.  The excuse &#8211; terrorism against two buildings using airplanes by a group with ties to the regime.  That terrorism group was also in the UN and EU countries, just not welcome. It is questionable.</p>
<p>We now see the fruits of NATO/EU policies like these &#8211; South Ossetia.  Like the others, it could have been negotiated out without the use of war.  Based on you beliefs, it appears that you would agree with the Russian position.</p>
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		<title>By: By The Fault &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Who Is Helping Georgia?</title>
		<link>http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/how-many-disputed-territories-have-you-annexed-this-week/comment-page-1/#comment-21615</link>
		<dc:creator>By The Fault &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Who Is Helping Georgia?</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2008 10:41:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3445#comment-21615</guid>
		<description>[...]  How Many Dispusted Territories Have You Annexed This Week by Charlie Whitaker looks at the character of the war and finds it has a &#8220;retro&#8221; feel.  There’s a distinct retrograde character to this week’s events. This makes following the news exciting, but nonetheless I don’t think we’re seeing the beginning of a return to the state of affairs pre-1989. For a start, with communism, for decades, there was the fear that maybe, just maybe, the reds might be outproducing us. In other words, whether or not communism was ethically sound, it worked. (And there’s more than a hint of this mentality with respect to China today.) I tend to believe that if you follow this road assiduously you get to a situation where - through reference to some sort of biological analogy - ‘strength’ or ‘fitness’ is given as the highest purpose of a nation. This bad. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...]  How Many Dispusted Territories Have You Annexed This Week by Charlie Whitaker looks at the character of the war and finds it has a &#8220;retro&#8221; feel.  There’s a distinct retrograde character to this week’s events. This makes following the news exciting, but nonetheless I don’t think we’re seeing the beginning of a return to the state of affairs pre-1989. For a start, with communism, for decades, there was the fear that maybe, just maybe, the reds might be outproducing us. In other words, whether or not communism was ethically sound, it worked. (And there’s more than a hint of this mentality with respect to China today.) I tend to believe that if you follow this road assiduously you get to a situation where &#8211; through reference to some sort of biological analogy &#8211; ‘strength’ or ‘fitness’ is given as the highest purpose of a nation. This bad. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Jabithew</title>
		<link>http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/how-many-disputed-territories-have-you-annexed-this-week/comment-page-1/#comment-21614</link>
		<dc:creator>Jabithew</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2008 10:30:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3445#comment-21614</guid>
		<description>@ Todd Thompson

Correlation does not equal causation. To note that both the EU and NATO are expanding eastwards at the same time (i.e. as soon as was actually possible) and then conclude that they must be the same is facile (see the pirates-prevent-global-warming correlation). 

NATO pre-dates the European Union, so if anything it would be more accurate to say that the EU is expanding behind NATO. But membership of one club or the other does not imply membership of both. Incidentally, I didn&#039;t actually say that they weren&#039;t expanding eastwards, I was pointing out that each was doing so independently. 

While it is true that Ireland and Austria operate under the ISAF, which is UN-established, I should point out (the Irish wouldn&#039;t be able to take part otherwise), their combined personnel presence is...erm...nine. Presumably they&#039;re non-combat, as christ only knows what they plan to do with nine troops between them. Finland and Sweden have put in more, but have been out-donated by the UAE and Jordan respectively, those well-known pawns of western imperialist hegemony. Even Serbia has contributed 5 personnel, and I can&#039;t see the Serbs being huge fans of NATO.

Portraying an attempt to end genocide as a simple case of regime change was dishonest, and I don&#039;t believe there is any appetite in NATO for long-term occupation of Kosovo(!? Half the neighbouring countries are in NATO, what would be the point?) or Afghanistan (been there, done that, got the body-bags). Looking at the facts on the ground, NATO has more or less failed in Afghanistan because only the anglophones have contributed significant numbers of troops, and non-anglophonic troops have been kept safely out of harm&#039;s way by government mandate.

My point is that to portray the EU or NATO as vast, unified conspiracies is just plain wrong *even within each entity*, let alone acting in unison.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Todd Thompson</p>
<p>Correlation does not equal causation. To note that both the EU and NATO are expanding eastwards at the same time (i.e. as soon as was actually possible) and then conclude that they must be the same is facile (see the pirates-prevent-global-warming correlation). </p>
<p>NATO pre-dates the European Union, so if anything it would be more accurate to say that the EU is expanding behind NATO. But membership of one club or the other does not imply membership of both. Incidentally, I didn&#8217;t actually say that they weren&#8217;t expanding eastwards, I was pointing out that each was doing so independently. </p>
<p>While it is true that Ireland and Austria operate under the ISAF, which is UN-established, I should point out (the Irish wouldn&#8217;t be able to take part otherwise), their combined personnel presence is&#8230;erm&#8230;nine. Presumably they&#8217;re non-combat, as christ only knows what they plan to do with nine troops between them. Finland and Sweden have put in more, but have been out-donated by the UAE and Jordan respectively, those well-known pawns of western imperialist hegemony. Even Serbia has contributed 5 personnel, and I can&#8217;t see the Serbs being huge fans of NATO.</p>
<p>Portraying an attempt to end genocide as a simple case of regime change was dishonest, and I don&#8217;t believe there is any appetite in NATO for long-term occupation of Kosovo(!? Half the neighbouring countries are in NATO, what would be the point?) or Afghanistan (been there, done that, got the body-bags). Looking at the facts on the ground, NATO has more or less failed in Afghanistan because only the anglophones have contributed significant numbers of troops, and non-anglophonic troops have been kept safely out of harm&#8217;s way by government mandate.</p>
<p>My point is that to portray the EU or NATO as vast, unified conspiracies is just plain wrong *even within each entity*, let alone acting in unison.</p>
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		<title>By: fnord</title>
		<link>http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/how-many-disputed-territories-have-you-annexed-this-week/comment-page-1/#comment-21611</link>
		<dc:creator>fnord</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2008 08:31:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3445#comment-21611</guid>
		<description>Not a very good blogpost.

For the russians, three clear advantages.

1) Manifestation of russian nationalist strength, showing that russia is able to project its interests and defend its population no matter what the west says.

2) Showing that there is might behind the rhetoric concerning Kosovo.

3) A livefire exercise of the new and improved military might that has been the talk of Russia for the last two years. Exercise of land-sea-air doctrine, test of shock and awe.

The pipelinebombing is a clear shot across the bow for the EU/USA. What would the effect be on energyprices? Show of might.

The big question is whatever the georgians (and the US and Israel by extension) thought they could gain from doing this during the olympic opening. Especially when seen in context of the US open insult of China at the same time, it seems downright idiotic.

Also</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not a very good blogpost.</p>
<p>For the russians, three clear advantages.</p>
<p>1) Manifestation of russian nationalist strength, showing that russia is able to project its interests and defend its population no matter what the west says.</p>
<p>2) Showing that there is might behind the rhetoric concerning Kosovo.</p>
<p>3) A livefire exercise of the new and improved military might that has been the talk of Russia for the last two years. Exercise of land-sea-air doctrine, test of shock and awe.</p>
<p>The pipelinebombing is a clear shot across the bow for the EU/USA. What would the effect be on energyprices? Show of might.</p>
<p>The big question is whatever the georgians (and the US and Israel by extension) thought they could gain from doing this during the olympic opening. Especially when seen in context of the US open insult of China at the same time, it seems downright idiotic.</p>
<p>Also</p>
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		<title>By: Todd Thompson</title>
		<link>http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/how-many-disputed-territories-have-you-annexed-this-week/comment-page-1/#comment-21604</link>
		<dc:creator>Todd Thompson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Aug 2008 05:33:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://fistfulofeuros.net/?p=3445#comment-21604</guid>
		<description>@ Jabithew

NATO operates through EU hegemony. Just because the membership roster is exactly the same doesn&#039;t mean they operate independently.  In fact all those members you list work with NATO in the Partnership for Peace Program and actively operate in Afghanistan under ISAF.  If you look beyond the roster, the differences in them and their policy blur to the same bloody color.  

It&#039;s strange that you argue there&#039;s a difference and say the EU and NATO haven&#039;t grown eastward together.  Poland, the Baltics, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, etc., have all joined NATO and the EU.  Given the facts, your comment is in error.

I am happy you enjoy spending money on your aggressive military alliance.  Unfortunately, they have killed civillians to obtain EU goals (e.g. a regime change in Serbia, longterm military bases in Kosovo, and a longterm military presence in Asia (Afghanistan)).

Best Wishes,

A Foe Fly
(as deemed by FOE Staff)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@ Jabithew</p>
<p>NATO operates through EU hegemony. Just because the membership roster is exactly the same doesn&#8217;t mean they operate independently.  In fact all those members you list work with NATO in the Partnership for Peace Program and actively operate in Afghanistan under ISAF.  If you look beyond the roster, the differences in them and their policy blur to the same bloody color.  </p>
<p>It&#8217;s strange that you argue there&#8217;s a difference and say the EU and NATO haven&#8217;t grown eastward together.  Poland, the Baltics, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, etc., have all joined NATO and the EU.  Given the facts, your comment is in error.</p>
<p>I am happy you enjoy spending money on your aggressive military alliance.  Unfortunately, they have killed civillians to obtain EU goals (e.g. a regime change in Serbia, longterm military bases in Kosovo, and a longterm military presence in Asia (Afghanistan)).</p>
<p>Best Wishes,</p>
<p>A Foe Fly<br />
(as deemed by FOE Staff)</p>
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