@Huib:
If you read the website of Westumbau you will see that the main target are cities whose main employers were the army.

Recently there was some discussion in the Dutch media about fertility rates. One of the things that came out is that if you ask women how many children they want you come at around the fertility rate. It is the practical problems that make them settle for less. I think that is the reason why France and Scandinavia do so well with their child care and all-days schools policies.

Part of the reason why the US does better on fertitility may be religion. In Holland conservative religious regions have a higher birth rate too.

I note in passing that, even after correcting for immigration and ethnicity, there are large regional differences in American fertility rates. That is, native born whites (for instance) in Texas have much higher TFRs than their cousins in Massachussetts.

Doug M.

First, Shorto fudges facts over here. The U.S. does NOT have a relatively high birth rate if you cut out immigrants. Native-born Americans are below replacement rate, though not as much as, say southern Europe. But, native-born Americans are around 1.9 or so, about where the UK is at.

Second, comparing immigration in the U.S. vs. Europe is definitely apples and oranges.

“Brief googling doesn’t provide more information on the German [urban shrinkage, HR] program, though, and not a thing anywhere in Eastern Europe.
Readers: anybody know anything?”

My reply: In the Eastern part of Germany the “Stadtumbau-Ost” programme was started soon after the German reunification. It tackles the urban “shrinking” (Schrumpfungs) problems systematically. Mostly, indeed, by “greening” derelict industrial areas, while instensifying activities in old and new urban centres. It is considered successfull. Some five years ago, it has been adapted, notably in Nordrhein-Westphalia, to post-industrial shrinking problems in the Western part of the Country (Stadtumbau West).
More information about ongoing Stadtumbau “shrinking” operations in the Land Nordrhein Westphalen (in German): http://www.stadtumbaunrw.de/

http://www.demographiekonkret.aktion2050.de/Stadtumbau.37.0.html

according to my numbers, the 25-29 and 30-34 age groups rule , and the 30-34 is set to get the crown in 5-6 years … of course, by then I’ll be out and scoring for the 40+ group …

as of 2005, official numbers, http://www.insse.ro/cms/files/pdf/ro/cap2.pdf

Male marriages
age

-20 1773
20-24 29764
25-29 56000
30-24 25464
34-39 12532

Fem. marriages
age

-20 19336
20-24 48526
25-29 40106
30-24 15905
34-39 8538

Live-born children/age of the mother
527 under 15
28356 15-19
57908 20-24
72990 25-29
42606 30-34
16298 35-39
2205 40-44
129 45-49

average age of mother at first birth: 26,3

average age of mother for all births:
1997 – 25,7
1998 – 25,9
1999 – 26,0
2000 – 26,3
2001 – 26,6
2002 – 26,9
2003 – 27,1
2004 – 27,3
2005 – 27,6

seems that it’s not so much that Rumanians stopped having children, as they delay a lot having children, and in the meantime the ratio deaths/births soared. I think it is almost the same situation in the rest of the Central and Eastern Europe … Having only one child … not much likely, since the (very strong) local custom is to have at least two: improved security for each of them after the parents die.

Another factor might be how easy it is to prevent pregnancies. I was shocked when I learned that in the US 49% of the pregnancies unplanned was. Combined with often difficult acces to means to terminate an unwanted pregnancies that might have an impact too.

@DougM: You might like the OECD family database.

Also, in Romania, the most common pattern is to have few but early children. In other words, women tend to marry young by European standards — mean age of first marriage for women is under 24 — and then to have a child or two pretty quickly. This is a different pattern from, for instance, France, where women tend to marry and have children in their late 20s or 30s.

But then, having had one or two children, Romanian women tend to /stop/. The number of births to women over 35 is very small, less than 10% of all births. Again, this is a different pattern from some other countries; German women, for instance, have a lot more children after 35.

So, while you may not be done with childbearing, your female classmates from high school almost are. The 1974 cohort of Romanian women has already had 80%-90% of all the children they will ever have.

Doug M.

“Meanwhile the birth rate is going to fall as the “empty cohorts” born in the 1990s move into the peak child-bearing years.” — the “empty cohorts” will have to wait their turn, since my own age cohort has not yet started started to breed … even those born in the 80′s did their duty before us, but we, the 1974-1975 gang, we’re likely to wait until we get that house, that car, and the bank account to send the kids to a US school.

Dave:
“More farmers = more babies.” — Not exactly true. I did a bit of inexpert and probably irrelevant number juggling and found out that whenever and wherever the number of economic regulations (whether municipal, national or EU) rises, the natality goes down during the next year.