Comments on: Does Anyone Really Know The Size Of The Greek 2009 Deficit?

By: APW

APW — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 23:59:29 +0000

Very well thought out and well constructed article. One thing is for sure, Im not going to be buying Greek Bonds anytime soon…..

By: Any special tricks to fix my nikon s210 camera lens? - Nikon FM - Nikon FM

Any special tricks to fix my nikon s210 camera lens? - Nikon FM - Nikon FM — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 07:04:17 +0000

[...] Does Anyone Really Know The Size Of The Greek 2009 Deficit? | afoe … [...]

By: The Issue With the EU « The Virtues of Vanity, Caprice, and Sloth

The Issue With the EU « The Virtues of Vanity, Caprice, and Sloth — Sun, 21 Mar 2010 04:47:10 +0000

[...] had long been running deficits, even when times were good. They also had a reputation for obfuscating economics reports about GDP, spending, etc. Her citizens also had a mindset of tax evasion that led [...]

By: scot

scot — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 07:27:00 +0000

Interesting thing: The greek government agrees to a huge rate and suddenly Greece is off the hook….

By: uberVU - social comments

uberVU - social comments — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 16:26:12 +0000

Social comments and analytics for this post…

This post was mentioned on Twitter by afoe_tw: new afoe entry, Does Anyone Really Know The Size Of The Greek 2009 Deficit? – http://tinyurl.com/yzkpppc #fb…

By: ALBANY – City-series – Heather grey T-shirt – size Large | Albany River Rats AHL Announcer

Sat, 23 Jan 2010 00:08:43 +0000

[...] Does Anyone Really Know The Size Of The Greek 2009 Deficit? | afoe … [...]

By: jon livesey

jon livesey — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 21:14:39 +0000

On the topic of who knows:

“Greece’s fiscal deficit will fall to 3.0 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while economic growth will reach 3.5 pct this year, the European Commission said on Monday.” May 9, 2006

“Greek fiscal deficit is projected to fall to 3.7 percent from 5.0 percent of GDP in 2008, Greek National Statistical Service said on Tuesday.” May 19th, 2009

“Greece’s fiscal deficit is projected to fall from 12.7 pct in 2009 to 8.7 pct in 2010, as the updated Stability and Growth Programme, unveiled on Thursday” Jan 10, 2010

Honestly, I don’t think anyone ever did know.

By: cj

cj — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 17:16:07 +0000

According to the Greek government’s own data for “central government” balances until November 2009, the deficit for central government was 13.9% of projected GDP. If you add in the average deficit for December over the previous 5 years (as a proportion of the years whole deficit – i.e. a seasonal adjustment), that number rises to 15.9%. If you simply apply the Dec 2008 deficit to 2009 (again, proportionately), the number is 15.5%.

Obviously, central government isn’t general government, but it’s hard to imagine that in a country where power and finances are so centralised, that regional and local government (the difference between central and general government) is providing a surplus of 3% of the entire country’s GDP.

One explanation given by a Greek colleague may be that the GDP estimate denominator which Greece is using is different to everyone else’s. Apparently Greece isn’t averse to including estimates of the black economy in its GDP estimates, even though it rather obviously cannot raise tax revenue from it.

So, my thinking is that the deficit is at least 15%, but a difference of 3% to current estimates may not be that much given how far people’s expectations have shifted…

By: Oliver

Oliver — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 08:58:52 +0000

Hi,

if the national debt is higher than thought, interest rates should rise. Can you give a point at which Greece should default, if it acted on cold hard calculations of not defaulting becoming more expensive than defaulting in the long run?