And It’s Another No

The first exit polls have just been announced in the Netherlands. The first estimate is 63% No, 37% Yes. (I may have to update this, as I have no numbers on abstention).

Let the debate continue!

Update: The euro just broke under the $1.22 level, it is currently at $1.2179 in US trading. Tomorrow is going to be a long hard day somewhere. (22.14 CET).

This entry was posted in A Fistful Of Euros, The European Union and tagged , , by Edward Hugh. Bookmark the permalink.

About Edward Hugh

Edward 'the bonobo is a Catalan economist of British extraction. After being born, brought-up and educated in the United Kingdom, Edward subsequently settled in Barcelona where he has now lived for over 15 years. As a consequence Edward considers himself to be "Catalan by adoption". He has also to some extent been "adopted by Catalonia", since throughout the current economic crisis he has been a constant voice on TV, radio and in the press arguing in favor of the need for some kind of internal devaluation if Spain wants to stay inside the Euro. By inclination he is a macro economist, but his obsession with trying to understand the economic impact of demographic changes has often taken him far from home, off and away from the more tranquil and placid pastures of the dismal science, into the bracken and thicket of demography, anthropology, biology, sociology and systems theory. All of which has lead him to ask himself whether Thomas Wolfe was not in fact right when he asserted that the fact of the matter is "you can never go home again".

24 thoughts on “And It’s Another No

  1. Wow! A really big ‘No!’

    Here’s hoping you guys in Europe acquire over time, perhaps as a result of these events, more chances to vote on more issues as we have here in the US (I say this not as a Yank who has no experience in Europe – I grew up in England and in France, and emigrated by choice to California).

    Personally I find it much more fun to live in a society in which a wide range of views are expressed in public and in politics, without being stifled by entrenched political, social and media elites (and no, America is not perfect in this respect either, just better than the EU).

    I have learned a lot myself over time from the views of what in Europe would be thought of as the ‘common people’, views and values I would really not ever have been exposed to had I remained in Europe. More referendums, more elections and more blogs, that’s the way forward.

  2. To the people of the Netherlands, I say “Hertelijk Dank!” This was the final nail in the coffin required to bury the monstrosity of a constitution, and perhaps there might even be a chance to write a proper document which sticks to the basics in clear language, just as soon as Europe’s political elite has finished processing their failure.

  3. Turn-out is around 62%.
    So now we have almost 40% of the voters against the treaty, almost 40% that doesn’t care or bother and less than 25% *acting* in favor of it.
    As a result of this strange concept of referendum = is some kind of ultimate democracy no the Dutch parliament will vote with 100% against the treaty.
    Well, under 25% is really low support. It included peple like me, voting yes reluctantly.

  4. As I write the euro seems to be in something like freefall in the US. It has lost about half a cent in the last hour. The telephones will be ringing somewhere.

    There is even some speculation around that the ECB will lower rates tomorrow. This would then be seen as panic, but not acting would be seen as obstinacy. They are really trapped in their own errors.

    The worst thing is the feeling that no-one competent is in charge, either in Brussels or Frankfurt. This is what IMHO is provoking this.

  5. Just to be clear, it will of course steady up at some point during the night. But this will only continue in the coming days. I don’t see a floor at $1.20, not the way this si going.

  6. I don’t know, I’m not that good :).

    Just guessing and following my instincts. Looking at the way the number is fluctuating my guess is someone is intervening, but who? Could be concerted, nobody wants the floor to fall away under the euro.

    Just take this a day at a time. What I can’t see is the end point, what move someone can make to steady things up. It won’t come tomorrow. There is some contagion of anti-euro sentiment, this is my feeling.

    I’m off to bed, tommorow will be a long day.

  7. ZF — Are you sure we reside in the same nation? Because I’m delighted to live in a country where creationism is creeping back into classrooms like kudzu and the local news consists of crime, fires, puppies, sports highlights and lengthy looks at the weather.

    I’d also urge our Euopean friends not to envy California’s referendum-happy approach to governance too much. When voters can — at a whim — drive a governor out of office soon after he is reelected mainly because of an energy crisis manufactured by corporate criminals who donate heavily to the opposing party, well, that’s just good ol’ American democracy at work, ain’t it?

  8. Euro is still too high, it s killing our industry.

    Do we have to put a bomb a Frankfort, to go back to a reasonnable value.

  9. Euro is still too high, it s killing our industry.

    Do we have to put a bomb a Frankfort, to go back to a reasonnable value.

  10. Euro is still too high, it s killing our industry.

    Beware of easy assignments of blame. Unsuccessful politicians and managers always are looking for scapegoats.

    In trade-weighted terms the Euro has hardly moved for a long time. German export is doing just fine. Imports, including raw materials and oil become cheap with a strong Euro. Most European trade is within the Euro area. Companies trading with foreigners generally hedge their currency risks. Last time I looked the Euro area had a roughly balanced trade etc.

    I am not saying the Euro shouldn’t be lower, but it is not a simple issue.

  11. Well I’m up again after a sound nights sleep.

    Look at the newspapers the euro steadied up overnight, but seems to be on its way down again in Tokyo. As I write it is trading at $1.2194, ten minutes ago it was 1.2186.

    During the night the dollar firmed:

    “Against the euro, the dollar fell to $1.2211 at 9:50 a.m. in Tokyo, from $1.2179 late yesterday in New York, according to electronic currency-dealing system EBS. It was also at 108.64 yen, from 108.76. The dollar traded as high as $1.2160 per euro yesterday, the strongest since Sept. 20,”
    Bloomberg.

    The general consensus seems to be that the euro will rebound, since that is what the technical charts say it will do. Be these are not ‘normal’ trading circumstances.

    Strategists at National Australia Bank hold what seems to me a reasonable perspective:

    “Barring news of a sharp slowdown in the US, the euro is set to test 1.2000 and then 1.1760, the NAB strategists said, adding that the market focus is now turning to US non-farm payroll data for May to be released on Friday”.

    NB I am not a currency theorist. I am just using educated guesswork, just like everyone else. Don’t anyone *dare* buy or sell on my advice :).

  12. Looks like I picked the right week to move some of my dollar holdings Over Here. Proving again that it’s better to be lucky than good…

  13. Jesus, you’d have to be crazy to sell euros and buy dollars on the fundamentals! But then again: the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent…

  14. Alex,
    Er which fundamentals are those?

    The American economy looks a lot more robust than the Eurozone.

  15. “The American economy looks a lot more robust than the Eurozone.”

    And the Chinese economy seems to be more robust than the US one, which is why I guess we need the renminbi revalued, eh Rob?

    (Actually I agree, the US economy is at this moment in time more robust than the eurozone, which is why I want the dollar, up, up and up).

  16. European weakness does america no good. It’s a disaster in
    fact.

    There’s such a thing as too much of a good thing. What we
    don’t need at this point is even more money flooding into
    the U.S.

  17. “What we don’t need at this point is even more money flooding into the U.S.”

    You said it Mark, and if you read my substantive posts on the euro and the dollar you’ll see I absolutely agree.

    Not too much, not too little, but just right.

  18. That’s exactly what I mean: the monster twin deficits enabled by huge capital inflows from Asian currency/dollar intervention, the housing bubble also riding on the Asian dollar-importers.

    Yes, the US economy is growing faster than the Eurozone (although not much faster than some euro-members), but it can only do so thanks to global imbalances that cannot last.

    We need an orderly realignment; a new Plaza accord to set how much of the burden of adjustment falls on each of the three parties (the US, the Eurozone, and the Asian “Bretton Woods II” zone). Panic selling of euros at the moment is tantamount to climbing from the lifeboat back aboard the sinking ship.

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