Anatomy of a “Non”

It’s in French, but it’s mostly figures – IPSOS has published the detailed results of their post-referendum survey.

Interestingly, the ‘yes’-camp seemed to fare well among those voters who made up their minds shortly before voting.

10 thoughts on “Anatomy of a “Non”

  1. Very interesting.

    Note the regional break out.

    No strong in the provinces, strong among rural voters. Strong among working class. Protectionist vote.

  2. Uninterestingly enough, the ‘Non’ vote’s strongest point may have been the simple fact that they GOT OUT OF BED Sunday morning to get down to the polls.

    I can’t tell you how many ‘yes’ votes I know that were lost because people just couldn’t be bothered.

  3. No strong in the provinces, strong among rural voters. Strong among working class. Protectionist vote.

    Look at the age distribution and extrapolate. And while I am doing the devil’s advocate when you say protectionist, don’t fool yourself. This doesn’t mean China. This means Turkey and the expansion of 2004.

    I can’t tell you how many ‘yes’ votes I know that were lost because people just couldn’t be bothered.

    Little, look at the participation. Close to record level.

  4. The french citizens residing in Quebeq voted OUI overwhelmingly. I don’t know what that means, I just saw it on TV5 this morning and I thought it was bizarre

  5. This doesn’t mean China. This means Turkey and the expansion of 2004

    You say this although the poll says something quite different ?

    The ‘yes’ voters name the position of the EU vis a vis China and the US in first place ( 64 % )

    The ‘non’ voters cite Turkey only in 35% of cases, with the French economy, the neo-liberal bend of the constitution and the wish for a better constitution as more important concerns.

  6. I can’t tell you how many ‘yes’ votes I know that were lost because people just couldn’t be bothered.
    Little, look at the participation. Close to record level.

    Indeed. And if you look at the breakdown of the ‘Abstentionistes’, percentages are pretty homogenous across most groups. Indeed, some of the stronger ‘non’ groups also are among those with low participation, notably the jobless ‘Chomeurs’ but also the young.

  7. “No strong in the provinces, strong among rural voters.”

    Amongst other things the skill level of employment in these areas, and the position in the value chain of the product profile mean that these areas are the most vulnerable to outsourcing, and while you are arguing (understandably) about th erlative merits of China and Turkey here, on the radio what I keep hearing is Eastern Europe.

    As to the age structure, I’m sure Oliver you are right, this is important, but I don’t really know how to interpret it.

  8. You say this although the poll says something quite different ?

    If you look at the choices given, you’ll see that there is political correctness going on. There was an option for opposing Turkey’s joining, but no option for no further enlargement. There was an option for voting no because you oppose the president, but there was no yes option for voting out of party loyalty. Neither did they ask who was to blame for the current economic situation. I guess this is a case of the questions shaping the result, not the other way round.

    The ‘yes’ voters name the position of the EU vis a vis China and the US in first place ( 64 % )

    Again, shoddy. One can certainly argue that the EU’s position towards China and the US are completely separate things and one can understand the question economically or in terms of power politics.
    Also, you can have a protectionist yes vote, reasoning that the EU must be powerful and large to be able to impose tariffs (which is true to a large extent)

    As to the age structure, I’m sure Oliver you are right, this is important, but I don’t really know how to interpret it.

    Demographics is in the no camp.
    I’d interpret it as the argument of the EU protecting peace and stability in Europe wearing out.

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