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Bank Turanalem’s 21/12/2009 GBP bond is presently trading at 35% nominal. The Astana Finance 2010 and 2011′s are worse – as is the BTA 2011. These prices imply near inevitable default. (1) Do you consider it likely that the State will fund/guarantee/bail out the 4 systemic banks (this post the nationalisation of BTA and Alliance). (2) Same question for Astana Finance (25% owned by national fund). (3) What would be international capital market/domestic consequences if they do not?

One nitpick: Is it really correct to describe as landlocked a country that borders the Caspian Sea?

Basically parterships with international oil majors. Despite endless wrangles, for example, Italy’s Eni SpA is a partner with the government in the Kashagan field.

“how’s the appetite of foreign invetors in the said industry in kazakhstan given the global economic situation?”

Well Jan, this is going to have a downside and an upside isn’t it. In the short term oil has become as much of a liability as anything since prices are falling rapidly on the back of the looming global recession. But that is just the point, the recession won’t last forever (we hope) and when global growth does recover (where, rather than when is the real question you should be asking yourself) then up will shoot commodity prices again, since they are currently falling on the back of demand drops not supply increases.

And if the reccession is longer and deeper than we are all hoping, then there will be other countries in much worse trouble than Kazakhstan.

Well this is a bit too far outside my expertise for me to make any meaningful observation, but it deoesn’t seem to be an issue as far as anything I’ve read goes. My impression is people are far too busy either herding camels, drinking themselves to an early death, or making lots and lots of money.